Annual spending on improvements and maintenance to owner-occupied homes is projected to slow sharply in early 2027, according to the latest Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity from the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The new LIRA shows year-over-year growth in home renovation and repair spending of just 0.5 percent by the first quarter of 2027 — a pace that remains positive in nominal terms but is less than overall inflation.

“Growth in remodeling permits and retail spending on building products has been flat recently, signaling stagnant interest in home improvement,” said Rachel Bogardus Drew, Director of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Center. “Even so, homeowners are expected to maintain spending at roughly last year’s levels, with total improvement and repair expenditures edging up modestly to $523 billion in early 2027.”

“Remodeling follows the overall housing market,” said Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Center. “Without a sustained rebound in construction, we’re likely to see remodeling spending remain in this low-growth range for the near future.”

One local contractor agrees with the LIRA report while another disagrees.

Jim Brown, president of J.R. Brown Construction Inc., Hollidaysburg, and executive director of the Blair Bedford Builders Association agrees.

“With fuel costs rising and uncertainty as to where they will be any given day, consumers see the costs of everything rising with no end in sight. The cost of fuel directly impacts everything we use to build or remodel a home. This combined with the tight labor market and further uncertainty with tariffs, ultimately prices many of our potential customers out of the market. In the past, it was easy to hold a price for several months while financing and permitting was put in place, but as a contractor, we are often unable to hold pricing at a certain level for much longer than a few weeks,” Brown said. “However, with Blair County being a strong market for remodeling, there is a slow down, but we still have a significant amount of work for reliable contractors.”

Randy Carper, owner of S&C Contracting Inc., Tyrone, does not agree with the LIRA report.

“We are currently booked out for the rest of the year and have some projects scheduled for 2027. We also work with a good many other contractors and they are very busy as well,” Carper said.

The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity provides a short-term outlook of national home improvement and repair spending to owner-occupied homes. The indicator, calculated from the annual rate-of-change of its components, is designed to project the annualized spending for the current quarter and subsequent four quarters, and is intended to help identify future turning points in the business cycle of the home improvement and repair industry.

Mirror Staff Writer Walt Frank is at 814-946-7467.