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The U.S.-Ukraine alliance is careening toward a possible breaking point, with Moscow strengthened by President Donald Trump's recent rejection of new Russia sanctions and Kyiv undermined by disruptions in satellite support for its drones during the war.
Trump's relationship with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has always been a moving target, while the Republican president has frequently boasted of his rapport with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. But relations between the U.S. and Ukraine appear to be at a new low, threatening to tip the balance of the war to Russia's favor and imperil America's security interests across the globe.
"At this moment in time, things look blacker than they ever had regarding this administration's policy towards Russia and Ukraine," said John Herbst, a former ambassador to Ukraine under President George W. Bush and now a scholar with the Atlantic Council.
Trump has been lobbing insults at Zelenskyy for over a week and turning to policies that benefit Putin, while Ukraine's president has said he feels betrayed and worries for his country's future. But the American president can still shift on Zelenskyy -- especially as he faces bipartisan outrage from lawmakers -- which Trump has done before.
Trump famously thrashed Ukraine's leader in the Oval Office last year, warning him to "make a deal or we are out." Washington briefly suspended intelligence sharing. But Trump was praising Zelenskyy by that July and said they "actually developed a good relationship."
"Trump is a mercurial guy," Herbst said. "He can wake up tomorrow morning, decide he's done enough on this, and he might start to lean back in the other direction."
Trump's recent decisions have baffled experts and infuriated Democrats and some Republicans ahead of pivotal midterm elections in two weeks.
After The Wall Street Journal reported that Putin raised the prospect of a meeting with Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, Trump told reporters Monday that he was open to it but expected it to focus on denuclearization efforts. Asked whether he would be willing to negotiate the end of the war without Zelenskyy, Trump appeared to indicate yes.
"I think it's time for somebody else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine," Trump said.