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For over a decade, Donald Trump has demonstrated a shrewd --- even brilliant -- grasp of what motivates his followers. That's why he's won two elections and only barely lost a third.
But Trump has always been more effective as a challenger than as an incumbent --- the one election he lost was as a sitting president --- and 18 months into his second term, the president seems to be losing his political touch. A glaring gap keeps growing between what he's focused on and what voters care about, and his recent tone-deaf speech about voter fraud highlights that damaging disconnect.
America is at war, a war Trump chose to fight after promising to avoid foreign conflicts, and the costs are mounting rapidly. At least 17 U.S. soldiers are dead and about 500 injured.
The White House has requested an emergency aid package of $67 billion to fund the war, and the Washington Post reports: "The Pentagon faces an urgent budget shortfall caused largely by the war in Iran, with some critical lines of funding set to run out within weeks."
For civilians, the average price of gas is now back to over $4 a gallon, and according to Brown University's Iran War Energy Cost Tracker, Americans have shouldered more than $72 billion in increased fuel bills since the war began in February. That works out to more than $550 per household, and consumer resentment is rising.
In the latest Washington Post poll, Trump's overall approval rating remains stuck at 37%, but only 33% support his economic policies and 27% back the war effort. Two-thirds describe groceries as "unaffordable," up from 45% in February, and many Republicans are increasingly frustrated with the president's relentless rants.
"To me, it's just a missed opportunity to talk about an issue that voters are actually going to cast votes on," Michigan Republican strategist Jason Cabel Roe told The Hill.
"When moms and dads lie down to sleep at night and can't, what are they mostly worried about? I would say cost of living. That's what I believe," said Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana.
Other GOP lawmakers say Trump is ignoring a basic truth, that American politics is always about the future, not the past. "It's like it's a really good show," said Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina. "But you've watched the reruns too many times."
As a result, reports the Post, there "are signs that Trump's base is weakening."
"Democrats are 10 points more likely to be certain to vote this year than Republicans," writes the Post. "And more than 7 in 10 Democrats say it is 'more important' to vote in 2026 than in previous midterm elections, compared with just over half of Republicans."
To some strategists, this fading zeal explains Trump's speech on voter fraud. He pulled out all the favorite catchphrases that have always motivated his base in an attempt to generate pressure on Congress to pass the SAVE Act, a bill that would rig the fall election for Republicans by disenfranchising as many as 21 million valid voters. And if the bill fails, as is likely, he acquires one more grievance to motivate his supporters.
But his ploy could also ignite "a political backfire for the GOP," warns the Wall Street Journal.
Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who lost a primary to a Trump-backed challenger, argues that since Republicans control the White House and both houses of Congress --- plus the Supreme Court --- playing the victim won't work.
Do voters care more about election fraud in Venezuela or gas and grocery prices in Visalia or Vincennes or Vicksburg? The answer is obvious, but not to Trump.