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A new poll suggests that a sizable number of Democrats -- more than 40% in some cases -- believe the attempts on President Donald Trump's life were fake.
The poll, which surveyed 1,000 Americans over the age of 18, was conducted by NewsGuard and YouGov. It asked people to respond to three statements:
"The assassination attempt against Donald Trump at the White House Correspondents Dinner in April 2026 was staged."
"The assassination attempt against Donald Trump at a Trump presidential campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, in July 2024 was staged."
"The assassination attempt against Donald Trump at Trump International Golf Club in September 2024 was staged."
The pollsters found that 34% of Democrats said the Correspondents Dinner attempt was staged; 42% of Democrats said the Butler shooting was staged; and 26% said the Trump golf club incident was staged.
By way of contrast, 13% of Republicans said the Correspondents Dinner attempt was staged; 7% of Republicans said the Butler shooting was staged; and 7% said the Trump golf club incident was staged.
The Republican numbers are bad enough, reflecting an information system and troubled culture in which fewer and fewer people believe what they read and watch. But the Democratic numbers are off the scale, reflecting something far beyond that -- a political atmosphere in which some people will believe anything about their hated opponent.
One striking aspect of the poll's findings was that the assassination attempt that seemed most undeniably real -- the Butler incident -- was the event the largest number of Democrats characterized as fake. On that day, Trump was shot and was visibly bleeding, while one man was killed and two others were seriously wounded, all of it captured on video and still pictures by several press photographers.
The poll questions gave respondents the option of saying they were "not sure" whether each of the assassination attempts was staged or not.
When you combine the number of people who said that a particular event was definitely staged with those who said they were not sure whether it was staged, you get a majority of Americans who question the reality of the Trump assassination attempts. For the Butler shooting, a combined 53% said it was staged or they were not sure; for the Correspondents Dinner, 56% percent said it was staged or they were not sure; and for the Palm Beach golf course incident, 52% said it was staged or they were not sure.
These are huge numbers of people who believe the assassination attempts are massive lies or might be lies.
For Democrats, the results are reminiscent of earlier polls that measured credulity about the most sensational allegations in the Trump-Russia controversy of the president's first term. In late 2018, the Economist and YouGov asked respondents about this statement concerning the 2016 election: "Russia tampered with vote tallies in order to get Donald Trump elected president." Was it true or false?
First of all, the statement was clearly false; there has never been any evidence that Russia tampered with vote tallies in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. But 31% of Democrats told pollsters the statement was "definitely" true, and another 36% of Democrats said it was "probably" true.
At that time, experiencing fantasies about Trump and Russia was an everyday experience. Now, the phenomenon has been updated with new material but the willingness to believe anything is the same.