As the ancient saying goes, “You can’t fool Mother Nature.” As Donald Trump is finding out, you can’t fool Mother Market, either.

Trump’s own economic policies, from raising tariffs to restricting immigration, are contributing to sluggish economic growth and rising prices. As Diane Swonk, the chief economist at KPMG, told The New York Times: “The data shows us that the underlying economy has slowed significantly. We know that headwinds are mounting as we move into the second half of the year, and that’s worrisome.”

The American public can feel those headwinds. In the latest Pew Research survey, 61% disapproved of Trump’s tariff policies and only 38% expressed support. The president’s overall approval rating has slipped to 38%, down 9 points since he took office.

Yet Trump’s main reaction has been to deny reality and fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after it produced a disappointing jobs report the president didn’t like.

The president’s approach, writes CNN analyst Ron Brownstein, “is rapidly advancing deeper into the territory of insisting that all data that doesn’t conform to Trump preferences is inherently invalid and that only the leader can tell you the truth.”

That strategy might work when you are telling true believers that the 2020 election was stolen because folks have no independent information to contradict him. But when it comes to economics, ordinary people are the best experts on their own situation.

The main reason Trump won last year was the cost of gas and groceries, and the refusal of voters to accept the specious claim that “Bidenomics” was making their lives better. Now Trump is committing the same mistake, trying to bluster his way out of bad economic news, when their kitchen table experience tells voters a different story.

Start with the tariffs Trump has imposed on many imported goods. “The consequences of the trade war have been some of the most inflationary policies we’ve seen in our lifetimes,” Natasha Sarin, the head of the Budget Lab at Yale, told the Times.

The Lab calculates, “Consumers face an overall average effective tariff rate of 18.3%, the highest since 1934,” and those levies could cost “an average per household income loss of $2,400 in 2025.” Wholesale prices rose almost 1% last month, the biggest jump in more than three years.

The full impact of higher tariffs has been mitigated by two factors: many companies stockpiled goods before new levies hit, and they have been reluctant to pass on higher costs to customers. But that is now changing.

“It will only be a matter of time before producers pass their higher tariff-related costs on to the backs of inflation-weary consumers,” wrote Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at a financial markets research firm.

Moreover, tariffs are a regressive tax, meaning every consumer, regardless of income, pays the same elevated price for an imported shirt or banana. So the working-class families who voted in growing numbers for Trump will suffer the most from his policies.

“How is it a victory for the U.S. that low-income Americans will now pay a good bit more for food and clothes at stores such as Costco and Walmart?” writes Fareed Zakaria in the Washington Post.

The hardship caused by Trump’s tariffs has been aggravated by another of his misguided policies: sharp reductions in immigration plus the deportation of undocumented workers. One of Trump’s frequent falsehoods is that immigrants are bad for the economy, when the very reverse is true.

“It’s no mystery what ails the labor force,” writes economist Mark Zandi in the Washington Post. “It is the severe restrictions on immigration.”

“A labor force flat on its back has many implications — none of them good,” Zandi explains. “It means disruptions to businesses that rely on immigrant labor. Agriculture and construction are especially vulnerable, but manufacturing, transportation, hospitality, retail, and child and elder care also depend critically on immigrants. Without these workers, labor costs will increase, adding to the inflation fueled by the tariffs.”

Trump’s persistent refusal to recognize economic reality is having another damaging effect — beyond the pain inflicted on working American families. His erratic and emotional behavior is shaking confidence in the stability and reliability of the U.S. economy itself.

“Politicians spin — it is what they do,” write economists N. Gregory Mankiw and Cecilia Rouse in the Post. “But when their spin undermines the integrity of the numbers we have come to rely on, the consequences are real. We will all pay the price.”

In other words, Mother Market always wins.