Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, right, tries to get past Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard during the first half of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, April 8, 2026, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

LAS VEGAS — The odds indicate the true NBA Finals will be a potential Western Conference showdown between the defending champion Thunder and a Spurs team that has had its way with Oklahoma City this season.

But the numbers also say as the NBA postseason begins not to count out the Celtics, who are just two years removed from winning their record 18th championship.

OKC is a +120 favorite at BetMGM Sportsbook to become the first team since Golden State in 2018 to repeat as champion. San Antonio, which defeated the Thunder four out of five times in the regular season, is next at +450. Boston lurks close behind at +550.

Every other team carries odds of 10-1 or longer.

“The West team is going to be favored in the final unless there’s a real shocker,” said Bruce Marshall, handicapper for WagerTalk/Gold Sheet. “We’re assuming it’s Oklahoma or San Antonio. Either of those two would be favored. Boston would have the best chance, I think, in the East, followed by the Knicks and then Detroit.”

David Lieberman, pro basketball lead at Caesars Sportsbook, expressed caution about assuming favorites would wind up in the NBA Finals.

“It should be pretty wide open this year, and I can see any of the top 3-5 seeds making a run in each conference,” Lieberman said. “I expect several long, competitive series all the way through.”

Key returnees

Jayson Tatum’s earlier-than-expected return from an Achilles tendon tear sustained in last year’s playoffs has made bettors believers of the Celtics. Boston was listed at 10-1 before his comeback, and 8.7% of the bets and 8.2% of the money at BetMGM are on the Celtics. That’s behind only the Pistons in the Eastern Conference (10.2% of bets, 9.7% of the handle).

There is plenty of reason for optimism in Detroit with Cade Cunningham back after missing about three weeks because of a collapsed lung.

Even though the West is better and deeper, many bettors see value in the numbers in the East.

“The Detroit Pistons have been getting bet all year, and now with Cade Cunningham back and healthy, bets are coming in on them again,” Lieberman said. “The top five seeds in the East have been pretty popular bets of late, so I think there is some belief in those teams outside of the Celtics.”

One and done

There was plenty of chatter about keeping an eye on the Lakers as a potential sleeper team in the West before Luka Doncic (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique) went down with injuries this month.

The BetMGM betting numbers reflect the low expectations for the Lakers. Los Angeles is listed at 125-1 to emerge from the West and 250-1 to win it all.

The fourth-seeded Lakers open the playoffs against No. 5 Houston. The Rockets are 8-1 favorites to win the series even without home-court advantage.

“The moment Luka got hurt, the chances of the Lakers making a deep run ended,” Marshall said. “Houston has been playing better, so I think that Lakers (have a) short stay. It’s too bad because it was looking like they might be menacing for a while when all the hands were on deck.”

Home teams favored

If the odds are correct, the four play-in tournament games Tuesday and Wednesday should come down to the final minutes.

Charlotte and the Los Angeles Clippers, each at 5.5 points, are the largest favorites at BetMGM.

The Hornets play Miami, with the winner facing Orlando or Philadelphia and an eventual matchup with top-seeded Detroit on the line. The 76ers are 1.5-point favorites over the Magic, with the winner of that game playing the Celtics.

In the West, the Clippers meet the Warriors for the right to play Portland or Phoenix and eventually advancing to play the Thunder. The Suns are 3.5-point favorites over the Trail Blazers, with the winner meeting the Spurs.

No tanking

Marshall agreed with NBA Commissioner Adam Silver that tanking is a major problem for the league.

Whether some teams aren’t giving it their all won’t be a factor in the betting in the playoffs, unlike during the regular season.

“Actually, I kind of enjoyed it when you got these teams that weren’t trying because you could try to go against them, although the oddsmakers were really making us pay with a lot of these numbers,” Marshall said. “It’s really a disease in the NBA and they’re trying to address, but it gets worse every year with the tanking stuff. As soon as a team sees they’re out of the playoff picture, they try not to win.”

Elsewhere in the league:

– Doc Rivers is stepping down as Milwaukee Bucks coach, capping a tumultuous year in which he was selected for the Hall of Fame while his injury-riddled team fell far short of expectations. The announcement comes a day after the Bucks ended a 32-50 season that snapped their run of nine straight playoff appearances. The team didn’t indicate whether Rivers might have any role with it moving forward. Rivers went 97-103 in 2.5 seasons with the Bucks. He owns a 1,194-866 overall record and ranks sixth on the career wins list among NBA coaches.

– The postseason is starting without the Milwaukee Bucks for the first time in a decade. How soon Milwaukee gets back to the playoffs could depend on an offseason that’s shaping up to be among the most critical in franchise history due to Giannis Antetokounmpo’s uncertain future. Has the two-time MVP played his last game in a Bucks uniform? “I don’t know,” Antetokounmpo said Sunday after the Bucks finished their 32-50 season with a 126-106 loss at Philadelphia. “It’s not up to me. We’ll see.” Antetokounmpo has spent his entire 13-year career in Milwaukee.

– Indiana Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton was prepared to spend this past NBA season in the shadows, fighting his way back from a torn right Achilles tendon. He never anticipated the long journey back would take a detour because of a bout with shingles. One day after the Pacers completed a 19-win season without their two-time All-Star ever suiting up, Haliburton told reporters Monday that while he’s ready to return from the injury, it’s the illness that he’ll be contending with this offseason.