Although President Donald Trump’s self-imposed deadline of July 9 for the implementation of his “Liberation Day” tariffs has come and gone, local business owners still face uncertainty with a volatile situation in both the domestic and international market.

Trump paused the onset of the newly raised tariff rates for 90 days soon after their debut in early April in order to work out new deals with top global trading partners, again delaying their implementation to Aug. 1 in an effort to give his trade representatives more time to negotiate.

White House trade advisor Peter Navarro’s initial prediction of “90 deals in 90 days” appears unlikely, even with the second delay.

Until the new deadline, all countries without a renegotiated deal will face a flat 10% tariff rate on all imports into the United States.

And if a deal is not struck by Aug. 1, the rate will revert back to the original number announced by Trump in April, which is over 50% for some countries.

The U.S. has inked new agreements with five nations so far, including key allies in the United Kingdom and Japan, and approved a “framework” of a deal with China in June that would see their effective tariff rate sharply cut from a high of 145% to 55%, with other deals in the works.

Trump has sent letters to 24 countries plus the 27-member European Union throughout July informing them that higher tariff rates will come into effect on Aug. 1 if a new deal has not been reached, even as trade negotiations with several recipient states are ongoing.

According to Penn State Professor and Center for Global Business Studies Director Terrence Guay, it seems “pretty impossible” for the Trump administration to hit the 90 deal target, or even half of that number by the new Aug. 1 deadline.

“I think most of them are still going to be undone,” Guay said, “I think that’s a completely unrealistic expectation.”

Negotiating a bilateral trade deal with a single country is a monumental task, as both sides must weigh input from domestic stakeholders in agriculture, business, defense, finance and other sectors, with potentially billions of dollars in revenue at risk if ultimately unsuccessful.

The process can often take years and can involve dozens of high-level diplomats and trade representatives.

The USMCA, a sweeping free trade agreement signed by Canada, Mexico and the U.S. during Trump’s first term, took about 15 months of work across eight rounds of negotiations.

Trump has less than a week to sign new deals until his self-imposed deadline, leaving a third delay increasingly likely, Guay said.

Another delay could create a volatile situation for the stock market.

“Because the administration says ‘we’re going to impose a tariff on this country,’ and the market goes down, and if they say ‘we’re going to wait two months’ and the market goes back up, so it’s very hard to understand how the market will respond to this,” he said.

Trump’s own indecision may be adversely affecting the negotiators working on his behalf, as his overall strategy for the tariff regime can change from week to week, Guay said.

One of Trump’s primary goals throughout both of his terms, and especially with the recent tariff action, has been to rework trade relationships he deems unfair to the U.S., even if such efforts damage relationships with longstanding allies.

Tariffs have increasingly become one of the president’s preferred ways to leverage American foreign policy objectives — Trump threatened a 100% tariff on Russian goods if the war in Ukraine is not resolved in 50 days during a July 14 meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

Local impact

Tom Wright, director of business development at Bedford Reinforced Plastics said that both shop employees and leadership are very supportive of Trump’s effort to reinvigorate American manufacturing even though the cost may represent a “double edged sword.”

Much of the precursor plastic material BRP uses to make its products is sourced from China, according to Wright, so the company is considering a number of other suppliers to avoid paying steep tariff duties.

If an alternate supplier cannot be found, assuming there are some degree of lasting tariffs on Chinese imports, Wright said some prices at BRP may increase to account for the higher cost of materials.

“You’ve got to have a B plan and a C plan in business today,” he said.

Trump is on the right track with his tariff policy, and may benefit from an even more aggressive approach, Wright said.

“We’re 100% on board with whatever he’s doing to move manufacturing back to the U.S.,” he said.

Krishan Indian Grocery Store in State College and its co-owner Rakesh Bhatia are facing rising costs across the board.

“Prices are going up now because of the impact of tariffs,” Bhatia said, estimating his majority-imported products have increased 5% to 10% in total cost over the past few months.

Since many key ingredients of Indian cuisine cannot be sourced domestically, Bhatia must source his goods from the south-Asian nation, and must pay the associated tariff rate.

Back in April, Bhatia was unsure of the long term outlook for his business since the tariff situation was in a “more fluid state,” but has since reached a more solid “final state,” where the tariff rate on Indian goods appears stable.

Bhatia has begun to look for domestic distributors to purchase his products from instead of buying directly from Indian manufacturers to sidestep the tariff duties.

“Tariffs are impacting my business directly,” he said.

Although he had to revamp his supply chain due to the president’s tariff regime, Bhatia said that the tariffs may be an overall boon for the American economy if they can help lower the budget deficit over time with increased tax revenue.

According to Bhatia, the tariffs other nations impose on American exports make it “hard to compete” for U.S. companies, so Trump’s tariffs could help level the playing field.

“If Trump can create some balance with the tariffs, it could equal more revenue for local investors and businesses,” he said.

Mirror Staff Writer Conner Goetz is at 814-946-7535.