Is this season 11-1 or bust for Penn State? Not necessarily, because next year looks even better

PSU point/counterpoint

This is the best two-year window of opportunity Penn State has had in decades, and for that reason, I'll land on the side -- barely -- of this not being an 11-1 or bust season for the Nittany Lions.

Because even if PSU doesn't go 11-1 and reach the College Football Playoff this year, I believe it should have an even better chance to do so next season.

Believe me, I can make a very, very strong case that this is in fact an 11-1 or bust season. That entire discussion would boil down to James Franklin.

Can he win the big game? The biggest game? This year, he'll have two chances, against Ohio State and Michigan, and Franklin needs to find a way to beat one of those teams in order to get a whole lot of critics -- fans and media alike -- off his back about the big-game failures.

Can Franklin beat Ohio State or Michigan this season? Well, I actually don't think so, because I believe both the Buckeyes and Wolverines are better than Penn State.

So, if my own expectation is that the Lions will go 10-2, then I can't be a hypocrite and go all in on the 11-1 or bust scenario.

For as good as we all think Drew Allar can be, I'm not just going to assume he can go into Columbus and beat the Buckeyes. Very few PSU teams have been able to do that, and I see this year as one of ups and downs for Allar.

I also have major concerns about Penn State's wide receivers. They're good enough to win 10 games, with the help of a great defense and strong running game. But at some point against Ohio State or Michigan, a wideout is going to have to make a big play or three in order to win. I'm not certain they can do that.

The best chance to go 11-1 would be to beat Michigan at Beaver Stadium. That could happen, and it should be a great game. But I just so happen to believe Michigan is the best team in the country, with a great offense that mixes a power running game and a very good quarterback, J.J. McCarthy, who has a year of starting under his belt.

I see the Wolverines winning a close game, handing PSU its second loss and a 10-2 record.

Allar, Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen and Abdul Carter will all be back next year, and Penn State probably will be ranked in the preseason top five. The Lions won't even need to go 11-1 to make the 12-team playoff in 2024, since 10-2 should be good enough.

Next year is the year, folks. Next year, I could see the Lions winning a national title.

This year will be more about getting Allar and all the other good youngsters the kind of experience they'll need to make it happen next season.

Cory Giger covers Penn State for DK Pittsburgh Sports and hosts "Sports Central" weekdays from 4 to 5 p.m. on 96.1 Hank FM.