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Notes and observations from Major League Baseball, which opened camps for pitchers and catchers this past Wednesday:
n Current preseason forecasts for the 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates are not positive.
The Baseball Prospectus Pecota projected standings have the Pirates finishing last in the National League Central Division this year, with a 73-89 record -- three games worse than the 76 wins that the Bucs finished with last season.
The Baseball Prospectus FanGraphs projected standings also have the Pirates finishing last in the division, with a final record of 77-85.
Both the Pecota and FanGraphs projected standings have the St. Louis Cardinals -- who finished last in the division last season with a 71-91 record -- to go from worst to first and win the division this season.
The Lindy's Sports magazine's 2024 baseball preview has a similarly dire forecast for the Bucs -- also last place in the division.
Lindy's -- which doesn't take into account any transactions that were made after its Jan. 5 print deadline -- predicts the Cincinnati Reds will win the Central Division, and doesn't even see the Cardinals as a Wild Card playoff team.
n I'm not buying the doom-and-gloom predictions for this year's Pirates, however, unless their starting pitching turns into a complete bust.
There are a number of good reasons for optimism heading into this season.
Shortstop O'Neil Cruz -- who missed essentially all of last season after suffering a broken ankle -- will return to give the Pirates another potent bat in their lineup.
Cruz hit 17 home runs and had 54 RBIs after a midseason call-up in 2022. He could be a real difference maker.
The Pirates have fortified their bullpen with the addition of flame-throwing left-hander Aroldis Chapman, a seven-time All-Star who signed a one-year, $10.5 million free-agent deal with the Pirates on Jan. 22.
To be sure, Chapman, who will be 36 when this season begins, is on the downside of his 14-year career.
But he still has something left in the tank. Chapman logged a 6-5 record with a 3.09 earned run average and six saves in 61 games with Kansas City and Texas combined last season, and appeared in nine postseason games for the world champion Rangers, allowing just two runs in eight innings.
Chapman, who broke into the major leagues as a heralded phenom with Cincinnati, has 321 career saves with five teams, but will likely be used as a set-up man in Pittsburgh for all-star closer David Bednar.
That combo should give the Pirates an elite 1-2 pitching combo for the final two innings of games this year. The sixth and seventh innings will be capably covered by right-handers Carmen Mlodzinski, Colin Holderman, and Dauri Moreta, along with left-hander Ryan Borucki, who shined in middle and late relief last season in 38 appearances with the Pirates after arriving in a trade.
The Pirates will have the ability to shorten plenty of games this season. If they have the lead going into the seventh inning, they will be difficult to beat.
The lineup will also have a decent amount of pop, led by outfielders Jack Suwinski (26 home runs, 74 RBIs) and Bryan Reynolds (24 homers, 84 RBIs). They will be supplemented by Rawlings Gold Glove third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes (15 homers, 61 RBIs), veteran fan favorite Andrew McCutchen (12 homers, 43 RBIs), first baseman Connor Joe (11 homers, 42 RBIs), and outfielder Josh Palacios (10 homers, 40 RBIs).
Outfielder Edward Olivares, who hit 12 home runs last season for the Kansas City Royals, was acquired by the Pirates in a trade earlier this offseason and will provide additional offensive thump.
n The recent signing of veteran catcher Yasmani Grandal was a smart move by the Pirates, providing much-needed depth behind the plate with Endy Rodriquez out for the season. The $64,000 question as camp begins is whether Grandal, a two-time all-star, will become the Pirates' number one catcher while former top draft pick Henry Davis gets needed seasoning at that position at Class AAA Indianapolis to start the year.
Prior to the Grandal signing, the Pirates had been adamant about Davis being their top guy behind the plate. He had been a catcher in college at the University of Louisville, but had very limited catching time after being called up to the Pirates last season, spending most of his first major league season in right field.
Jason Delay was solid in a backup catching role for the Bucs last season, and Ali Sanchez -- who spent the 2023 season in the Arizona Diamondbacks' minor league system -- signed a free-agent contract this past December, less than one month after Rodriquez had suffered a UCL injury while playing winter ball in the Dominican Republic.
n The NL Central is wide open from this perspective. The Cardinals will likely make marked improvement, but, other than the acquisition of veteran starting pitcher Sonny Gray, they've had a ho-hum offseason.
The Reds have a bevy of young talent in their batting lineup and on the mound, and should be quite competitive again this season after getting a lot of good rookies experience in 2023.
The Cubs lost outstanding right-handed pitcher Marcus Strohman to free agency, but went out and signed Shota Imanaga -- a talented veteran left-handed pitcher who spent the past eight seasons in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball League -- to a four-year contract. Imanaga -- who carded a 2.86 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning over his eight seasons in Japan -- should give the Cubs a solid 1-2 punch with left-hander Justin Steele, who won 16 games a year ago.
The Cubs are still looking to re-sign first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger, who earned the NL Comeback Player of the Year award last season, when he hit 26 homers, drove in 97 runs, and batted .307. Bellinger's agent is Scott Boras, who is known for getting top dollar for free agents, and the Cubs are currently unwilling to spend what Bellinger and Boras want for Bellinger's return.
The defending NL Central Division champion Milwaukee Brewers may be in a rebuilding mode with the trade of ace pitcher Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles. Other top players, like closer Devin Williams and shortstop Willy Adames, may be on the move as well.
John Hartsock can be reached at jhartsock@altoonamirror.com.