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Notes and observations from Major League Baseball as the MLB winter meetings open next week in Nashville, Tenn:
n After the Pittsburgh Pirates made some significant strides toward reaching the .500 mark in 2023 and possibly becoming a National League playoff contender in 2024, they were dealt a severe setback recently when it was announced that right-handed pitcher Johan Oviedo will require Tommy John elbow surgery that will sideline him for all of next season.
Entering this offseason, the Pirates' starting pitching rotation was the team's biggest question mark, with the widespread consensus being that the Bucs needed to add two decent but affordably priced starting pitchers this offseason in order to continue and build on the improvement they achieved in 2023, and make a run for the NL Central Division championship or at least a Wild Card playoff spot.
Right-hander Mitch Keller and Oviedo were the only starting rotation spots set in stone for the Pirates going into next season, and the injury sustained by Oviedo -- who sported a 9-14 record in 32 appearances with a 4.31 earned run average, one complete-game shutout, and an average of eight strikeouts per nine innings pitched in 2023 -- is a significant blow to the team.
Now, the current rotation after Keller -- who was an NL All-Star last year -- is riddled with question marks, and the Pirates must either acquire multiple arms in the trade or free agent market, or hope that in-house products like Quinn Priester, Roansy Contreras, top draft pick Paul Skenes, Luis Ortiz, Jared Jones, and/or Mike Burrows -- step up and achieve significant progress in 2024 to help the Pirates get to where they want to be.
n The St. Louis Cardinals faced glaring starting pitching deficiencies during the 2023 season while staggering to their first losing season since 2007 and finishing last in the NL Central.
The Cardinals have been aggressive in the free-agent pitching market in November, signing three veteran pitchers, including right-hander Sonny Gray, to contracts.
Gray signed a three-year contract with the Cardinals worth $75 million, including a club option for 2027.
Gray, 34, was a runner-up to the Yankees' Gerrit Cole for the American League's Cy Young Award in 2023, carding an 8-8 record with the Minnesota Twins and a 2.79 ERA with 183 strikeouts in 184 innings, and his addition gives St. Louis a top-of-the-rotation talent in 2024.
The Cardinals are rolling the dice on the other two additions, however. Veteran right-hander Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, both 36, recently signed one-year contracts worth 12 and 10 million dollars, respectively, and both now project as mid to lower-rotation type pitchers.
Gibson won 15 games with a 4.74 ERA last year for the Baltimore Orioles, and Lynn -- who had a long stint with the Cardinals earlier in his career -- won 13 games with a 5.71 ERA in combined duty with the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers in 2023.
Both Gibson and Lynn come with considerable risk because of their age, and the Cardinals could very well add another younger, quality starting pitcher this offseason before also replenishing a bullpen that struggled in 2023.
n The price for top free-agent top-line starting pitchers this season will be very steep. Realistically, the Pirates weren't in the bidding for either Gray, or Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola, who recently re-signed with the Phillies for seven years and 172 million dollars.
Lefty Blake Snell, a two-time Cy Young Award winner who pitched for the San Diego Padres last year, comes with a price tag that is similarly prohibitive for small to mid-market teams.
The most talked-about free-agent pitcher this offseason is Japanese baseball sensation Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 25, a right-hander with the Orix Buffaloes, a Nippon professional baseball team. Yamamoto is expected to sign an MLB contract in the range of nine years, $225 million, which puts him well out of the price range of all but a select few of MLB teams.
n The Pirates are in the market for young, talented pitchers with a high ceiling and controllable contracts for multiple seasons. The Seattle Mariners have several such candidates that the Bucs may be interested in.
Left-hander Marco Gonzales, 31, is at the top of that list. In nine major league seasons, Gonzales -- chosen by the Cardinals with the 19th overall pick in the first round of the 2013 MLB draft -- has a career record of 65-49 with a 4.14 ERA in 163 games.
Other young Mariners pitchers that could be in the Pirates' sights this offseason are right-handers Bryce Miller, 25, Emerson Hancock, 24, or Bryce Woo, 22. Miller carded an 8-7 record with nine quality starts in 25 games last year, while Woo was 4-5 in 18 starts with a 4.21 ERA, 93 strikeouts and only 31 walks in 87.2 innings.
n With the departure of manager Craig Counsell to the Chicago Cubs and their top two pitchers either in limbo or unavailable for 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers may officially be in rebuild mode after winning the NL Central title last year.
Counsell, who had managed the Brewers to playoff berths five times in his nine seasons as the Milwaukee manager, signed a five-year contract for $40 million to manage the Cubs in mid-November.
After being a top candidate for the New York Mets managerial opening that has since been filled, Counsell surprised much of the baseball world by latching on with the Cubs, who parted ways with their manager and hometown favorite, David Ross.
Right-hander Brandon Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery in October and is expected to miss most of the 2024 season.
Woodruff is a free agent who was non-tendered by the Brewers this offseason, and is now a free agent who is available to negotiate a contract with any other major league club. A team may want to gamble on Woodruff becoming completely healthy in the late stages of 2024 and being available for all of the 2025 season.
It's been conjectured that it may be worthwhile for the Pirates to at least kick the tires on Woodruff this offseason, although Pittsburgh's immediate pitching needs are much more urgent.
Former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes has one year remaining on his contract with the Brewers, after losing an acrimonious arbitration dispute with Milwaukee last offseason. The Brewers are much more likely to move the right-hander this winter than to attempt to re-sign him.
Another veteran right-hander, Freddy Peralta, has one year left on his Milwaukee contract and may be another Brewers trade candidate this winter. Only time will tell if the Pirates will cast a bid for Peralta's services.
n As exciting and interesting as next season is shaping up to be for the Pirates and the NL Central Division, what transpires this offseason, and as early as next week, could have the biggest impact on what happens in 2024.
John Hartsock can be reached at jhartsock@altoonamirror.com.