Trending
A win over Michigan would be the first step
By Neil Rudel
nrudel@altoonamirror.com
Since it's probably too much to ask to win both this year, I'm going to say Michigan.
Ohio State has proven to be a cut above Penn State and, other than Michigan's victory over the Buckeyes in 2021, the rest of the Big Ten.
A split would put the Nittany Lions on track to finish 11-1, which would keep them on the edge of the College Football Playoff, and certainly beating the Buckeyes would move the needle for the selection committee.
But that's even less likely if Penn State loses to Michigan.
Under James Franklin, the Lions are 1-7 against Ohio State with the lone victory coming in 2016 on Marcus Allen's blocked field goal that Grant Haley returned for a touchdown, a fluky but earned win that served as a springboard to PSU's only conference title.
Though the games have been competitive, Penn State fans have generally accepted that Ohio State is on another level.
At some point, maybe the Lions will close that gap and ascend to the elite status Franklin outlined after the 2018 loss to the Buckeyes.
And maybe that will be this year. We'll see.
But I don't think so -- not after watching C.J. Stroud carving up defenses and the Bucks looking closer to Georgia and Alabama than Purdue and Northwestern.
Penn State has had more success against Michigan. Franklin is 3-5 vs. the Wolverines, and while there have been some close games over the years, there have also been a few blowouts.
That's why it's more important for the Lions to win in Ann Arbor on Saturday than it is to beat Ohio State. They need to establish that they're the No. 2 team in the conference before they can think about being No. 1.
Jim Harbaugh finally broke through against Ohio State last year and won his first Big Ten title. Penn State can't afford to fall further behind Harbaugh and the Wolverines, too.
And beating Michigan would allow the Nittany Nation to restore -- or acquire -- some optimism for what Franklin is building.
It would allow Penn State, presuming a win over Minnesota in the whiteout -- which is not a given - the chance to think big and, at 7-0, create a magical atmosphere for the Buckeyes.
Conversely, if the Nits go to the Big House and lay an egg - they lost there 49-10 in 2016 and 42-7 in 2018 -- they could well still be sulking and lose to Minnesota the next week.
And think about the 2018 team. It had Trace McSorley, Miles Sanders, Pat Freiermuth, KJ Hamler, Amani Oruwariye, Connor McGovern, Kevin Givens and others.
A team with that much talent shouldn't be losing 42-7.
Which brings us back to today's question. Due to Franklin's excellent recruiting, Penn State is loaded with future NFL players, and he is being paid (handsomely) to beat Michigan and Ohio State.
If he can start with the Wolverines on Saturday, the program should be considered back to Big Ten title contention and headed in the right direction.
But first thing's first, and that's Michigan.
Rudel can be reached at 814-946-7527 or nrudel@altoonamirror.com.
This isn't must-win game,
but OSU game will be
By Cory Giger
sports@altoonamirror.com
Ohio State is the season. Every season.
Penn State plays a big game Saturday at Michigan, but it's not even a must-win game, let alone the most important game of the season.
The Nittany Lions can lose to the Wolverines and still accomplish their primary goal of getting to the College Football Playoff.
By beating Ohio State.
The most important thing we will find out about Penn State on Saturday is if the team is for real or not. And we can get that answer even if the Lions lose.
Michigan is the better team. Michigan is at home. Michigan is favored by a touchdown.
Nobody should really expect Penn State to win this game. Sure, the Lions can win, and maybe they will. But to say, "Penn State should win" is more about hope than reality.
The bottom line is, even if the Lions lose -- and as long as they're not humiliated, a la 49-10 (2016) or 42-7 (2018) -- it won't change the most important fact.
A victory over Ohio State at Beaver Stadium on Oct. 29 probably will be enough to earn a playoff berth, assuming Penn State doesn't lose anymore regular-season games and then disposes of the West Division champ in the Big Ten title game.
Looking at it another way, if Penn State beats Michigan and then loses to Ohio State, the odds of making the playoff would be significantly reduced.
Why? Because Ohio State is better than Michigan, they play this year at the Horseshoe, and the Buckeyes will win that game.
So, at the end of the day, even if Penn State beats Michigan, it's not getting into a playoff at 11-1. Not if Ohio State is 13-0.
OK, OK, so what about both Ohio State and Penn State getting in? It is conceivable that could happen if the Buckeyes win the Big Ten and the Lions are sitting there at 11-1.
But I just don't see it.
Alabama and Georgia probably will both go undefeated, then one will beat the other in the SEC title game. And both teams will make the playoff.
Ohio State also would be in. And the other spot likely goes to Clemson, which should run the weaker ACC slate undefeated.
So again, Penn State's best and most feasible path to the playoff is to beat Ohio State, regardless of what happens at Michigan.
Just to throw this out there, the Big Ten has some interesting tiebreaker scenarios to determine a division champ if, say, the Lions, Buckeyes and Wolverines all finish with one loss. It's pretty ridiculous, to be honest, but it could come down to conference records of opponents from the other division.
We'll tackle all those crazy scenarios when and if there is the possibility of a three-way tie.
But even still, a loss Saturday won't end Penn State's playoff hopes.
Those will be determined when the Lions face the Buckeyes in two weeks.
Cory Giger covers Penn State for DK Pittsburgh Sports and hosts "Sports Central" weekdays from 4-5 on WRTA. He can be reached at cgsports12@gmail.com.