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Feels like Lions are better,
seeing 3-1 over next four
By Neil Rudel
nrudel@altoonamirror.com
Sean Clifford said earlier this month the Nittany Lions "want to win every game this season."
While that may be obvious, it was also a surprising disclosure considering the team's 11-11 record of the last previous two years -- with Clifford at the helm.
Penn State is not in an unusual position. For the fifth time in the last six seasons -- 2020 being the lone outlier -- the Nittany Lions have started 4-0 or better.
And now that the appetite has been whet, everyone is pointing to October and a season-defining gauntlet of at Michigan, vs. Minnesota (whiteout) and vs. Ohio State.
Northwestern will bat first this Saturday, but based on the odds (25.5), the Wildcats wouldn't be favored to win the Mid-American Conference, let alone threaten the upper echelon of the Big Ten.
Almost nobody expects the Lions to run the October table.
Then again, few thought they'd win at both Purdue and Auburn -- maybe one but not both, even though neither has met their own expectations this year.
Which brings me back to today's question.
I picked Penn State 8-4, and I must fall on my sword. The Nits are better than I anticipated, and I think they have a decent chance to go 3-1 in October.
That means splitting with Michigan or Ohio State and beating Minnesota.
James Franklin is 1-3 in Ann Arbor, winning only 27-17 on his last trip, 2020 (Covid year, when the Wolverines were even less interested than PSU). The previous two games were not kind -- 49-10 in 2016 and 42-7 in 2018.
Credit Michigan for dismantling Ohio State last year and then finally winning its first Big Ten championship game.
Whether the Wolverines are as tough this year is hard to say. Their non-conference schedule of Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn is no indication. Last weekend's home struggle with Maryland may be.
Either way, Penn State should go in 5-0 and rested from a bye week.
Presuming an improved performance from what the Lions showed vs. Central Michigan, the oddsmakers will see this as a field-goal spread -- likely with Michigan favored.
It will come down to being able to hang in with Michigan physically. But the Lions are probably faster and have enough playmakers on both sides of the ball to win the game.
Whether it's the humble pie Franklin was served in 2020 and '21, or some adjustments he made in prioritizing depth, or Manny Diaz's new style -- nothing against Brent Pry, who did a solid job -- or an improving offensive line, whatever it is, this year feels different.
It feels like the Lions are better, and it feels like Franklin will mercifully improve on his 7-17 record against Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State, especially with the Spartans limping.
Regardless of the outcome at the Big House, Minnesota is rising, and you can be sure offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarracca -- who was unfairly fired after one year at PSU -- and the Gophers will be ready.
It was Ciarracca's work that carved up the Lions' secondary back in 2019 and dealt Penn State its first loss after an 8-0 start. And who was Minnesota's quarterback that day? Tanner Morgan, who -- like Clifford -- is still around.
With Purdue and Illinois up next, it's highly probable the Gophers will arrive on Oct. 22 unbeaten, and regardless of what happens at Michigan the week before, this will be a game Franklin cannot afford to lose.
Oh, his contract says otherwise, but the court of public opinion won't.
That brings us to Ohio State on Oct. 29, and if you've seen much of the Buckeyes, they're on another level, but Beaver Stadium will be ready -- particularly if the Lions are 3-0 in October at that point.
Which is very possible.
Rudel can be reached at 814-946-7527 or nrudel@altoonamirror.com.
Still not sold on PSU
beating OSU, Michigan
By Cory Giger
sports@altoonamirror.com
Penn State has a good team. I am convinced of that.But I'm still not at all convinced the Nittany Lions have a really good team, the kind that can go into the Big House and beat Michigan on Oct. 15.
Still chalking that one up as a loss on my end.
And since I don't see Penn State beating Ohio State on Oct. 29 either, I can't predict anything better than a 2-2 record for October.
To be honest, it wouldn't be a big surprise if the Lions end up going 1-3 for the month, if history repeats itself.
I'll get to why I'll be picking Michigan to beat Penn State in a bit.
First, there's this tidbit about James Franklin: His record after a loss as a head coach is 15-28-1, which ranks in the bottom five among all coaches in FBS.
One of the biggest warts of Franklin's coaching career is that, once his team loses a game, he's had a tough time getting everybody to regroup for the next game.
So, if my pick of Michigan is indeed correct, we'll have to take a good, hard look at Penn State's next game after that — a visit by Minnesota on Oct. 22.
That's the whiteout game. There is no way right now I'm picking Penn State to lose that, because of the program's success in whiteout contests.
But even though I won't be picking Minnesota, it shouldn't come as a huge surprise to Lion fans if the Gophers come into Beaver Stadium and win that one.
Minnesota is good. The Gophers just clobbered Michigan State on the road last week, 34-7, and have Purdue at home this week, then a trip to Illinois.
They should be 6-0 and overflowing with confidence when they visit Penn State, and will be a very difficult opponent.
Alrighty, so you can see how it is feasible — despite a lot of things going well for Penn State right now — that the Lions could in fact end up 1-3 in October.
That's not just me being negative about this Penn State team, which I'm sure some fans will think. It's about respecting the fact that Michigan is a road game, Ohio State is a far better team and the possibility of that tricky Minnesota game coming after a potential first loss.
OK, so why don't I think PSU will beat Michigan? The same old, same old, really: Sean Clifford's inconsistency and lingering questions about the running game.
Yes, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen have been outstanding so far, and it is going to be very exciting to see those guys develop throughout their carers. But I'm still not sold on Penn State going into Michigan and running the ball very effectively.
If the Lions don't run great, then it will put more pressure on Clifford to have to win the game by himself. I have very little confidence he can pull that off at Michigan.
The 4-0 start has been great, and the PSU players have a whole lot of confidence right now. But I can see a situation where they lose to Michigan, everyone is deflated — especially the young players — and the loss lingers with the team more than it should.
And hey, even if they do beat Minnesota the following week, the Buckeyes will end the Lions' College Football Playoff hopes at the end of the month.
Cory Giger covers Penn State for DK Pittsburgh Sports and hosts "Sports Central" weekdays from 4-5 on WRTA. He can be reached at cgsports12@gmail.com.