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What unit needs to
carry the day
at Iowa?
By Cory Giger
For the Mirror
I usually have five keys for Penn State to win a game. Today I'm going with five words.
Don't. Turn. The. Ball. Over.
That is indeed the story line of this week's showdown at Iowa, as James Franklin said Tuesday.
So much of Iowa's success in rising to a No. 3 ranking has been predicated on turnovers. The Hawkeyes have forced 16 of them (12 interceptions), giving their offense a bunch of short fields and easy scoring opportunities.
How good is Iowa if the other team doesn't turn the ball over?
How good is Iowa if its offense has to drive the field for scores instead of taking over in plus territory?
How good is Iowa's offense in general?
If Penn State's offense can protect the ball and sustain enough drives, the Nittany Lions can win Saturday at Iowa.
If PSU turns it over several times, can't run the ball and can't move the chains enough to control field position, then the Lions will lose.
Penn State's defense is really good. We've all seen that. But I don't necessarily think it's a great defense, as indicated by Wisconsin (185) and Auburn (182) both running for at least 180 yards.
The defense is good enough to win this game as long as the offense helps out some. But the offense definitely can lose this game if it falls into the same trap that other teams have this season -- turning the ball over and giving the Hawkeyes a bunch of easy points.
I'm picking Iowa to win because I don't trust Penn State's running game. It's not necessarily the running backs, but the offensive line, which I think is really poor at run blocking.
If the Lions can run the ball, they can win.
If they can't run the ball, then Sean Clifford is going to have to do everything to carry the offense.
That's not an ideal scenario for Penn State.
Yes, Clifford has been good this season. Much better than expected, to be honest. But when he feels the pressure to have to do everything, he's shown in his career that he can hurt the team with bad decisions, bad reads and bad throws.
This is a very good Iowa defense, and Clifford will need help from the running backs to keep the chains moving, sustain some drives and control field position.
If the Lions score on some of those drives, great. But if they don't and have to punt, at least they'll be punting from around midfield or better, so they can pin Iowa deep and force the Hawkeyes to drive a long field.
Can Iowa do that against Penn State's defense? I doubt it. Not consistently, anyway.
So at the very least, the Lions' offense needs to show as much balance as possible, or else hit three or four big plays that lead to quick scores.
Either way, Penn State cannot turn the ball over, because that will be a sure fire way to lose the game.
Cory Giger is a Penn State beat writer for DK Pittsburgh Sports and host of "Sports Central" weekday afternoons from 4-5 on WRTA. Contact him at cgsports12@aol.com.