Chris Masse’s PSU-Minnesota game breakdown
Chris Masse analyzes the matchups vs. Minnesota
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Offense
Penn State: What a two-week turnaround for this unit. Rocco Becht has validated Matt Campbell's belief when many (guilty, here) were saying it was time to turn the page. Becht's arm, legs and mind all jelled after he was against the wall. Huge comeback by the offensive line and running game. A clutch 14-play drive to close the game at Washington highlighted the improvement.
Minnesota: Injuries to Gophers' top two centers has Minnesota mightily struggling and it has the second-fewest yards among Big Ten teams the last three weeks. Gophers reached 20 points against UCLA, snapping a four-game stretch in which it failed to do so and totaled just 42. Only Michigan State ranks lower in yards per game and no passer, rusher or receiver is among Big Ten's top 10 leaders.
Advantage: Penn State
Defense
Penn State: It faded late, but the defense making some two crucial red zone stops, ultimately, helped save the game, as did Ibn McDaniels interception. The Lions have allowed just 481 yards the last two games, although just 10 sacks in nine games is kind of mind-blowing. Take away Tony Rojas, and the rest of the defense has five sacks. Speaking of Rojas, he also has 57 tackles and two interceptions.
Minnesota: Gophers have leaned on defense, frustrating Indiana in an overtime loss and limiting Iowa to 10 points, but two second-half breakdowns led to 150 passing yards and two touchdowns against UCLA. TJ Bush Jr. is fourth in the conference with six sacks and has more than every Lion defender not named Tony Rojas. LB Maverick Baranowski is making run at 100 tackles.
Advantage: Penn State
Special teams
Penn State: Punter Nathan Tiyce is 16th out of 18 punters in yards per kick (40.7) and his placement has not been impressive, either. Ryan Baker went 4-of-4 on extra points, but without trying a field goal at Washington, it's hard to tell if he's snapped out of a mini-funk. Zay Robinson is fifth among Big Ten punt returners, producing 10.3 yards per return. No Lions in top 10 kick return leaders.
Minnesota: Before two long misses last week, Luke Drzewiecki had made an FCS high 26 straight field goals. Fifth-year kicker has been one of the country's best the last two seasons, going 35-of-38. That includes 11-of-11 from 40-49 yards. Quayd Hendrix leads Big Ten in kick return average (24.9) yards and Javon Tracy is game-changer who's second in punt returns and has taken two for touchdowns.
Advantage: Minnesota
Coaching/intangibles
Penn State: James Franklin never had the chance following a 3-4 start last year, but it hardly looked like he could have pulled Penn State from the spiral it was in. Give Campbell credit because he's rallied the team together and Lions have pulled together, rather than break apart. A team is only as good as its next game, but the picture certainly looks brighter than three weeks ago.
Minnesota: PJ Fleck gets the most from his teams, but the Gophers are one of those squads who always seem on the cusp of a big breakthrough but can't quite get there. Minnesota has made a bowl game in seven of the last eight seasons, missing the COVID year, and Fleck is trying to lead it to eight or more wins for the fifth time in six years.
Advantage: Minnesota
Prediction record: 6-3
Prediction: Minnesota checks more boxes, but the game is one on the field; not on paper. Both teams have been hard to figure out week-to-week, so this is a tough one to project. Simply based on playing better the past two weeks and being at home, Penn State gets a slight edge. Penn State 20, Minnesota 17