Chris Masse’s PSU-Purdue game breakdown
Chris Masse analyzes the matchups vs. Purdue
Trending
Offense
Penn State: There is loyalty and there is being stubborn. Matt Campbell is decidedly leaning toward the latter. You're 3-4 and going nowhere. Might as well prepare for the future and let Alex Manske loose if Rocco Becht struggles early, especially if Koby Howard returns. Running game is all but worthless and offense has proven it cannot lean upon turnover-prone Becht.
Purdue: Vastly improved this season, Purdue averages 31.3 points per game and only Notre Dame has held it to fewer than 24 points. It also torched UCLA's stout defense for 38 points. QB Ryan Browne entered Purdue's bye week third among Big Ten passing yardage leaders and running back Ijeboi Fame averages 81 yards per game. Asaad Waseem is one of league's top receivers.
Advantage: Penn State
Defense
Penn State: It was surprising that Michigan had so much success running the ball against Penn State. Said nobody. Ever. Penn State getting pushed around by one of the more physical teams in the Big Ten. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Lions now rank 17th out of 18 Big Ten teams in rushing defense, although they do rank first in pass defense. Not that it showed against USC.
Purdue: As often has been the case over the years, Purdue is among the Big 10's worst defenses. Only Maryland allowed more points per game than Purdue through seven games and Boilermakers allow league-worst 413 yards per games. The good news for Penn State is Purdue has proven equally inept at stopping the run (18th) and the pass (16th). Also only have eight sacks.
Advantage: Penn State
Special teams
Penn State: Although Nathan Tiyce is 16th among Big Ten punters in yards per kick, that number is skewed. He has sacrificed yardage at times for good placement, spotting 12 of his 31 punts inside the 20. Only three league punters have done that better. Ryan Barker is tied for second in field goals, although that is partly good for him and bad for the red zone offense.
Purdue: Upper St. Clair graduate Jacobo Echeverria Lozano is having a fabulous freshman season. He has kicked a league-high 15 field goals, missing just once. He is perfect inside 40 yards; 3 of 4 between 40-49, and has not attempted a 50+ kick. Punter Dylan Drennan is fourth among Big 10 punters at 47 yards per kick and 7 of his 20 have landed inside the 20.
Advantage: Purdue
Coaching/intangibles
Penn State: Outside the Northwestern game, Penn State has had opportunities to win three Big Ten games. So, if one chooses to look at the glass half-filled, there you go. If you go the other way, Campbell has made some head-scratching decisions in those three losses and his team has yet to win a close game. That's a bad look.
Purdue: Purdue has made some big strides in Barry Odom's second season, already topping last year's win total. The Boilermakers are 2-2 in league play following a winless 2025 slate and overpowered Minnesota, highlighting a possible big turnaround. Odom orchestrated turnarounds in his first two head coaching stops at Missouri and UNLV and is laying a nice foundation.
Advantage: Purdue
Prediction record: 5-2
Prediction: While I give Purdue the advantages in three of four categories, games are not won on paper. It's
tempting to go with the Boilermakers here, but also tough envisioning them winning at Beaver Stadium. PSU has struggled in close games, but the drought ends and it escapes in the closing minutes. Penn State 27, Purdue 24