Chris Masse’s PSU-Northwestern game breakdown
Chris Masse analyzes the matchups at Northwestern
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Offense
Penn State: Yikes. That was mighty ugly last week. I know Koby Howard wasn't there, but that shouldn't make that kind of seismic difference. Playcalling in big moments was mighty Franklinesque, which is disturbing. Considering its cupcake non-conference schedule, being ranked 10th in Big Ten in offense is not good. If that is real Rocco Becht, Lions are in trouble.
Northwestern: Northwestern became just fifth team in last two years to reach 20 points against defending national champion Indiana. QB Aidan Chiles needs 77 yards to reach 5,000 for his career and carved up Indiana for 293 yards. He is third in conference in passer rating. Northwestern has struggled to run and is 13th in conference in yards per game.
Advantage: Northwestern
Defense
Penn State: The lack of consistent pass rush persists, but defense certainly did its part to give PSU win last week, especially essentially producing 14 points. Kind of wild that Penn State's leading tackler, Tony Rojas, is only 31st among Big Ten players. He also has two of team's six sacks and two interceptions. In other words, he's pretty darn good.
Northwestern: Only Purdue has allowed more yards per game than Northwestern (417.3). Indiana ran at will at times and Wildcats surrender nearly 200 rushing yards per contest. Safety Robert Fitzgerald is tied for Big Ten tackle lead at 38. He piled up 114 a year ago. Northwestern has struggled to harass the quarterback, producing five sacks in three games.
Advantage: Penn State
Special teams
Penn State: Ryan Barker is tied for second in the league with seven field goals. He is 25-of-27 the last two years, including 7-of-7 from 40-49 yards. Punter Nathan Ticye is 14th among Big Ten punters in net average. That's not doing defense any favors. On flip side, Zay Robinson helping offense by ranking fifth in league in punt return average (12.5 yards).
Northwestern: Joseph Himon II is dangerous in return game, averaging 21.4 yards, good for fifth in Big Ten. Jackson Kleather is working on perfect kicking season, going 5-of-5 on field goals; 11-of-11 on extra points. Like Barker, he has missed just two field goal attempts past two seasons, only in one last try. That includes 56-yarder last fall. Punter Nickola Dugandzic is last in Big Ten in net average (34.3).
Advantage: Penn State
Coaching/intangibles
Penn State: Yes, Matt Campbell coached a poor game and failed his first test as Penn State coach, but let's walk back off the ledge, people. It's one game. And, while the schedule looked favorable, it was probably unreasonable to expect this team to compete for a playoff spot this year. That said, last week can't become a habit.
Northwestern: David Braun turned around a dormant program in 2023, earning Big Ten Coach of the Year honors. His eight wins in his rookie season were the most by a Northwestern debuting coach since 1903. Last year's win at Penn State ignited another bowl run and Wildcats had the look of a dangerous team against Indiana.
Advantage: Northwestern
Prediction record: 3-1
Prediction: Everything points to Northwestern winning this game based off what happened last weekend. So, naturally, I'm pulling a George Costanza and doing the opposite of what all my instincts tell me to do. Penn State 23, Northwestern 21