Chris Masse’s PSU-Michigan game breakdown
Chris Masse analyzes the matchups at Michigan
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Offense
Penn State: Rocco Becht looked pretty good following two awful outings, but the roller coaster ride isn't the mark of a reliable field general. And that's scary considering the running game is as inept as wearing a wind breaker in the arctic. The offensive line is as weak as a wet paper towel, so 23 points against a bad defense might be the high-water mark.
Michigan: How bad is Michigan offensively? The Wolverines rank below PSU in yards and points per game. In fact, only Michigan State has been more dismal in the Big Ten. QB Bryce Underwood has underwhelmed for the past two seasons and Bo Schembechler is somewhere weeping when seeing how ineffective running game is. Nobody deserves an advantage in this unit matchup.
Advantage: Penn State
Defense
Penn State: To paraphrase the late, great John McKay, PSU couldn't stop the run against Northwestern, but the Lions made it up for by not stopping the pass against USC. The defensive line looks as bad as the O-line. Tony Rojas has half of the team's meager eight sacks in six games. For those keeping count, Lions have allowed 946 yards last two games. USC can get away with that; PSU can't.
Michigan: Unlike PSU, Michigan does have a defense to lean on. Wolverines allow a league-best 241.4 yards per game, although it did let Iowa march 94 yards for a game-winning score three weeks ago. No team has scored more than 20 against Michigan and it limited Oklahoma to 10 points. Wolverines' main strength has been defending the pass, which makes for bad matchup vs. the Lions' anemic run game.
Advantage: Michigan
Special teams
Penn State: Ryan Barker looked more like Ryan Barker last week, kicking three field goals, including a 48-yarder, and Nathan Tiyce had good placement on his punts. Zay Robinson has not been providing the same spark he did earlier in return game, but Lions also are no longer playing cupcake opponents, either.
Michigan: Kicker Trey Butkowski has been outstanding these past two years, going 24-of-27 on field goals and not missing any extra points. He has been especially effective from 40, going 3-of-3 this fall. Punter Cam Brown gets a lot of practice, averaging nearly five punts per game. He spots them well, too, putting 11 of 24 inside the 20. Punt returner Andrew Marsh can be dangerous.
Advantage: Michigan
Coaching/intangibles
Penn State: People have to put the pitchforks away. You can't fire a coach every time something goes wrong in the first season. Yes, it's been ugly, but so was last year. That said, Campbell potentially has cost PSU two games with questionable playcalling, especially in the red zone, and atrocious clock management.
Michigan: Like Campbell, Kyle Whittingham is having a rough go in his first year. Anyone with eyes knows his team should be 2-3, but I digress. The long-time coach had a great run at Utah and his 2008 team, which went 13-0, might have been the country's best, but was burned by the BCS because it was not a name brand.
Advantage: Michigan
Prediction record: 4-2
Prediction: This feels like it has the makings of something similar to the infamous 6-4 Iowa-PSU game in 2004. Michigan's offense could be the elixir for what ails defense, but Michigan frequently is much better up front in the matchup, so I think this doesn't end well. Michigan 24, Penn State 10
Chris Masse is a sports writer for the Williamsport Sun-Gazette, a sister paper of the Mirror and part of Ogden Newspapers.