Look for lots of blowouts in first week of college football
AP college football picks
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For all the changes happening in college football nowadays, one thing remains the same: Week 1 blowouts.
There should be a bunch of them when the season hits full stride with Labor Day weekend games scheduled Thursday through Monday.
The average predicted point spread is 26 points for the 18 games involving Top 25 teams and fellow Bowl Subdivision members. Seven teams are favored to win by at least four touchdowns and only two by fewer than 10 points.
There are 48 games matching Championship Subdivision teams against the FBS, with six involving Top 25 teams.
The picks for the FBS vs. FBS games, with Associated Press Top 25 rankings and betting lines, with all games Saturday unless noted:
FILE – Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, center, gets away from Miami defensive lineman David Blay Jr. (11) and defensive back Ja’Boree Antoine (16) to score a touchdown during the second half of the Cotton Bowl College Football Playoff quarterfinal game Wednesday, Dec. 31, 2025, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File)
Ball State (+50 1/2) at No. 1 Ohio State
Ohio State is flip-flopping tradition and holding its senior day ceremony before the opener. Former star RB Maurice Clarett will be the pregame victory bell ringer and then the Buckeyes will do what they're supposed to do against a team like Ball State. Starters will have a short day with a showdown at No. 5 Texas on deck.
Pick: Ohio State 56-7.
FILE – Oregon quarterback Dante Moore (5) throws a pass during the second half of the Peach Bowl NCAA college football playoff semifinal game against Indiana, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson, File)
Boise State (+24 1/2) at No. 2 Oregon
Oregon needed a last-second field goal to win the last time these teams met, and there are always kinks to work out in an opener even for a star-studded cast. The Broncos have a three-year starter in QB Maddux Madsen and a run game that can control the ball, though that's a big ask against maybe the best defensive front in the nation.
Pick: Oregon 42-21.
Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Notre Dame (-20 1/2) in Green Bay
Notre Dame is a team on a mission after getting left out of the College Football Playoff, and Heisman Trophy co-favorite CJ Carr should flourish on the big stage Sunday night against a defense that has a work-in-progress pass rush and a rebuilding secondary.
Pick: Notre Dame 33-10.
FILE – Texas quarterback Arch Manning (16) looks for a receiver during the first half of the Citrus Bowl NCAA college football game against Michigan, Dec. 31, 2025, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux, File)
Texas State at No. 5 Texas (-29 1/2)
Arch Manning should feast on a defense that struggled against the best offenses in the Sun Belt last year. The Bobcats' up-tempo offense featuring record-setting QB Brad Jackson and a pair of 1,000-yard receivers should give returning Longhorns defensive coordinator Will Muschamp some things to think about.
Pick: Texas 52-21.
North Texas at No. 6 Indiana (-40 1/2)
The Hoosiers' national title defense, and first game for Fernando Mendoza successor Josh Hoover, comes against a rebuilding Mean Green program that was in contention for a playoff spot last year. North Texas has no returning starters on defense; its QB, Tayven Jackson, played two years at Indiana.
Pick: Indiana 63-10.
No. 7 Miami (-24) at Stanford
The Hurricanes are doing all they can to avoid the pitfalls of playing 3,000 miles from home, flying to California on Tuesday to help them acclimate for Friday night's game. Stage is set for WR Malachi Toney to take over, especially with new QB Darian Mensah delivering the ball. Stanford is confident after holding off Hawaii, but the 'Canes are a different problem to solve.
Pick: Miami 42-17.
Missouri State at No. 8 Texas A&M (-41)
QB Marcel Reed and other returning players are expected to take the Aggies back to the playoff. Bears have a new coach in ex-SMU offensive coordinator Casey Woods and are picked seventh in Conference USA in their second FBS season.
Pick: Texas A&M 55-6.
No. 24 Louisville vs. No. 9 Mississippi (-7) in Nashville
QB Trinidad Chambliss and RB Kewan Lacy are back after leading Mississippi on a run to the CFP semifinals. Ohio State transfer QB Lincoln Kienholz will start Sunday night for Cardinals, who have upset two top-10 teams and an 11th-ranked team in Jeff Brohm's first three seasons.
Pick: Mississippi 31-21.
UTEP at No. 10 Oklahoma (-41 1/2)
Sooners QB John Mateer and the rest of the starters should have a short night Friday in the tune-up for next week's trip to No. 16 Michigan. Miners are 5-19 in two seasons under Scotty Walden and have scored more than 10 points in only two of 12 games against power-conference opponents the last 10 years.
Pick: Oklahoma 49-3.
Clemson at No. 11 LSU (-10)
Lots of talk about eligibility issues leading up to this one from Dabo Swinney and Lane Kiffin. As for the football part, Kiffin's well-paid roster holds the talent advantage. Clemson QB Christopher Vizzina has unenviable task of making his second career start in LSU's version of Death Valley.
Pick: LSU 28-17.
East Carolina (+28 1/2) at No. 13 Alabama
Alabama's priority on offense is to revive a woeful running game. Keelon Russell, the Tide's No. 3 QB last year, is now the starter and the offensive line has four new starters. The difference-maker could be five-star freshman RB EJ Crowell.
Pick: Alabama 38-14.
Fresno State (+21 1/2) at No. 14 Southern California
The Trojans took their foot off the gas in the second half against San Jose State. That won't happen Friday night against Fresno State, which has designs on earning the Group of Six playoff bid.
Pick: USC 35-14.
Western Michigan (+27 1/2) at No. 16 Michigan
The Wolverines better not look ahead to Oklahoma in coach Kyle Whittingham's debut. Western Michigan is the defending MAC champion and favored to repeat. Wolverines have a wide physical advantage, but makeup of the offensive line is unsettled and QB Bryce Underwood hasn't run Jason Beck's offense in a game.
Pick: Michigan 44-21.
Washington State at No. 17 Washington (-23 1/2)
Washington is a team on the rise in the Big Ten, especially with the return of QB Demond Williams. Kirby Moore, little brother of New York Giants coach Kellen Moore, starts his Washington State tenure with this unusual Apple Cup coming on the Sunday before Labor Day.
Pick: Washington 49-10.
Marshall at No. 18 Penn State (-24 1/2)
The Matt Campbell era begins at Penn State, and he's brought a lot of familiar faces with him from Iowa State. QB Rocco Becht and his friends should feel comfortable as they ease their way into the season with three straight easy games.
Pick: Penn State 45-7.
No. 19 SMU at Florida State (+2 1/2)
The old saw is that a team makes its biggest improvement between the first and second games, and that better be the case for the Seminoles. The defense gave up too many big plays against New Mexico State and must be better with SMU QB Kevin Jennings coming to town on Monday night.
Pick: Florida State 28-24.
Northern Illinois (+31 1/2) at No. 22 Iowa
A point spread this big is highly unusual for Iowa. That's more an indicator of the expectations for Northern Illinois, which has an interim coach and is coming off a three-win season. Neither team has announced its starting quarterback.
Pick: Iowa 40-10.
Oregon State at No. 23 Houston (-20 1/2)
Makhi Hughes, who rushed for more than 2,700 yards over two seasons at Tulane, is set to reboot his career after things didn't work out for him at Oregon last year. He and returning QB Conner Weigman should put up big numbers against an Oregon State team with its fifth coach (two were interims) in four years.
Pick: Houston 42-7.