Does PSU need to finish 11-1 to make the postseason?

To save real aggravation, beating Gophers is a must

First of all, thanks to those of you who expressed concern on my absence last week, wondering if I was sick.

We wanted to give Andy an opportunity, so all is well. (And Cory will be back next week).

Now, onto the question.

In a word, absolutely.

Unless Penn State wants to spend the next two-plus weeks profusely sweating out Selection Sunday (Dec. 8) about its place in the 12-team College Football Playoff field, it needs to win at Minnesota on Saturday.

That would allow the Nittany Lions to maintain control of their own destiny.

As Dec. 8 gets closer, understand there will be more scrutiny over schedules -- conference and non-conference -- along with comparing best wins, worst losses, home and road success and margins of victory.

And Penn State's best win right now is its very competitive, coulda/shoulda/woulda loss to Ohio State.

Some may argue that Illinois is Penn State's best win. At 7-3, the Illini are much improved, and much respect to Bret Bielema, who would be on a secondary Big Ten coach of the year list with others not named Curt Cignetti.

But not to offend Scotty Franco (his favorite team), Illinois is still Illinois.

Normally, winning at West Virginia, USC and Wisconsin would bolster a resume - and collectively, they do - but each of those teams has five losses. Ditto Washington.

So the Lions can't afford a loss at 6-4 Minnesota and still feel good about their body of work.

Penn State currently stands at No. 4 in the College Football Playoff rankings, but is seeded at No. 6 because, as mentioned previously, the highest-ranked champions of the four power conferences (Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12) plus the Group of Five are guaranteed four first-round byes.

That bumps down the Nittany Lions and moves up, probably, Miami or Clemson -- whichever wins the ACC -- and Big 12 champ BYU or Colorado and conceivably Boise State from the Group of Five.

And then there's 9-1 Notre Dame, which is perched for a berth despite no conference affiliation.

The next real issue is whether the Big Ten will get four teams into the field. Currently, Oregon - having staved off an upset at Wisconsin on Saturday night - is ticketed for the Big Ten title game.

This Saturday's game between Ohio State and Indiana is massive.

Indiana has been college football's Cinderella, at 10-0, but it doesn't have a signature win.

It needs to be competitive in the Horseshoe but even at 11-1, the Hoosiers likely are in the field. Unless they lose 47-8.

Beyond its champion and runnerup, say Alabama and Texas, the SEC has four teams with two losses - Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Texas A&M. If the Aggies beat Texas, that could throw a wrench in the Big Ten's plans to get four teams in the field.

Georgia won at Texas, Tennessee beat Alabama, Ole Miss beat Georgia and A&M could have a win over Texas.

And that's with just getting one team from the Big 12 and ACC in to what will be perceived to be a Big Ten-SEC party.

The SEC, rest assured, will not want its title-game loser to be penalized for a third loss. Already its coaches are lobbying against playing in the SEC final.

That's what magnifies Penn State's trip to Minnesota, which has a history of gumming up the Nittany Lions' postseason plans (most notably in 1999 and 2019).

Win, and there's no problem.

Lose and there could be.

Rudel can be reached at nrudel@altoonamirror.com. He will respond to questions and brief comments in Gameday.