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UNIVERSITY PARK -- Just based on historical percentages, Penn State figures to return from the 2024 NCAA Division I Wrestling Championships with 2-3 national champions, 6-7 All-Americans and a third consecutive team title, the 12th in program history.
In the 14 previous NCAA championships under Cael Sanderson, the Nittany Lions have qualified 150 wrestlers for NCAAs. That group has produced 98 All-Americans, 36 national champions and 11 team titles. No team champion was crowned in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic forced the NCAA to cancel the championships.
Even allowing for a statistical adjustment, those numbers are probably low for this year's squad. Penn State qualified all 10 wrestlers -- four seeded first and two more seeded second -- for NCAAs, which are planned for today through Saturday at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City.
Penn State blitzed the field at the Big Ten Tournament, crowning five champions and placing nine wrestlers in the Top 3 of their respective weights. Nittany Lion fans are hopeful for a similar performance at NCAAs.
Two Nittany Lions will attempt to win rare fourth NCAA titles. Two others will attempt to improve last year's runner-up finishes. Some say Penn State has a chance to be the second team in tournament history to finish with 10 All-Americans, matching Minnesota's solo feat in 2001. Others think the Nittany Lions could make a run at the all-time team scoring mark of 170 set by Iowa in 1997.
"I think it's a lot of fun. You have the team component and then you have these individuals trying to reach goals that they've had from the time they first probably got into wrestling," PSU coach Cael Sanderson said.
"Anytime you have a chance to go out and get after something that's been a dream of yours for a long time, that's pretty darn exciting."
Braeden Davis (125 pounds), Levi Haines (157), Aaron Brooks (197) and Greg Kerkvliet (285) are seeded No. 1. Beau Bartlett (141) and Mitchell Mesenbrink (165) are seeded second. Bernie Truax (184) is sixth, Tyler Kasak (149) seventh, Carter Starocci (174) ninth and Aaron Nagao (133) 10th.
And while fans may spend a lot of time parsing seeds, Sanderson said he and his coaches don't.
"I know that seeds don't really mean a whole lot, when it's all said and done. You definitely earn that with your body of work," he said. "It's just a matter of going out there and being yourself and just competing the way you want to compete."
One case in point is three-time NCAA champion Starocci being seeded ninth after injury defaulting twice at the Big Ten Championships to protect an injured knee. That decision led to speculation over a cryptic late-night post on social media from Starocci. But that's all in the past, Starocci said.
"It was frustrating but I think just looking back on it, I think it's a blessing to have a coach that really cares about me just not as a wrestler but as a person. He's in a lose-lose situation. He puts me out there and then he's kind of second-guessing himself. Or, the alternative is I'm pissed at him," Starocci said.
"At the end of the day, he's the boss man. I work for him, so whatever he decides I'm gonna roll with. He's done everything that I ever want to do in this life, in wrestling, outside of wrestling. Almost every word that comes out of his mouth, maybe besides that day, I'm always on board with. I would do anything for Coach Cael."
Holding Starocci out of Big Tens ultimately led to his being seeded ninth. But, again, Starocci said it doesn't really matter.
"I don't care what they seed me. Don't even have me seeded. Just have me wrestle every single kid in the bracket one by one. I'll take them all out inside of three days," he said.
Starocci and Brooks have an opportunity to join one of the most exclusive clubs in college wrestling, that of a four-time champion. There have only been five -- Pat Smith of Oklahoma State, Sanderson at Iowa State, Kyle Dake of Cornell, Logan Stieber of Ohio State and Yianni Diakomihalis of Cornell. Starocci and/or Brooks could be the first in Penn State history.
"I think it's pretty cool. It's something that I've always wanted to do," Starocci said.
Brooks said there was a time when he thought about following in Sanderson's footsteps as a four-time champion, but he doesn't think about it much anymore.
"I think a long time ago, whenever I was first coming into the program. I was a lot younger. In my mindset, I was just like "I want to do this. I want to do that. I want to be a four-timer.' I think a lot of things in life we want because we see how someone else is when they have them," Brooks said.
"The old me was like, 'I love how people look at him and they respect him.' But you can't want things for that. My reflection has changed."