Excellent rotation has Pirates hopeful for playoff berth
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Pitching is the engine that drives the team vehicle at almost all levels of baseball, and in that respect, the Pittsburgh Pirates' prospects look very promising in the second half of this Major League Baseball season.
Despite an offense that has registered a team batting average of just .231 -- tied with the Cincinnati Reds for the National League's lowest this year -- in 96 games this season, the Pirates remain in contention for both the NL Central Division championship and a Wild Card playoff berth because of starting pitching that has been outstanding and a bullpen that has been generally effective.
After a 5-1 road trip that included two wins in three games against the Milwaukee Brewers and a three-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox, the Pirates have reached the All-Star break with a .500 record (49-49) and are just 1¢ games out of the third Wild Card spot, only two games out of the second Wild Card Spot and in third place in the NL Central, just 6¢ games behind the division-leading Brewers.
Rookie right-hander Paul Skenes, who led LSU to the NCAA championship in 2023, has lived up to every bit of the hype that had accompanied him as the first pick of the MLB Amateur Draft by the Pirates last June.
The 6-foot-5 Skenes -- who tonight will become the NL's first rookie pitcher to start in an All-Star Game since Hideo Nomo did so for the Los Angeles Dodgers back in 1995 -- possesses an other-worldly four-pitch repertoire. With a pitching artillery including a fastball that tops out at 103 miles per hour, a curve ball, a slider and a break-neck "splinker" that is a combination split-finger fastball and sinker, Skenes has a 6-0 record with a 1.90 earned run average in his 11 starts since his much-anticipated MLB debut on May 11.
He's allowed only 14 runs in 66• innings pitched, with 89 strikeouts and only 13 walks. Because of pitch-count precautions, he was removed from two separate games this year despite allowing no hits -- against the Brewers in seven innings, and against the Chicago Cubs in six innings. Under contract control by the Pirates for five seasons, Skenes is looking like a generational talent who is proving to be a pitcher that the Pirates can build around for years to come, and one who the Bucs should make signing to a long-term contract extension a top priority.
As good as Skenes has been, the Pirates are showing an overall depth and talent in their starting rotation that would make them a very dangerous team to face for any opponent in a playoff series. Right-hander Mitch Keller, an NL All-Star in 2023, has been even better this season, even though he was not picked for this year's game. Keller has 10 wins in 18 starts at the break, with a 3.46 ERA and a team-leading 105 strikeouts in 114• innings pitched.
The successful emergence of rookie right-hander Jared Jones, who pitched for the Class AA Altoona Curve just last season, has been a splendid surprise, as has been the improvement shown by left-hander Bailey Falter -- although both will start the second half of this season on the team's Injured List.
The call to arms for the Bucs continues with more depth in the rotation due to the presence of veteran lefties Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales -- both of whom were acquired last offseason -- as well as the development and improvement of young right-hander Luis Ortiz and the promise that has been shown by another young right-hander, Quinn Priester.
Throw in the fact that top right-handed pitching prospect Braxton Ashcraft could make his MLB debut with the Bucs later this season, and the team's starting rotation depth could become even more impressive.
Whether the Pirates use some of their pitching largess -- particularly at the prospect level -- to trade for a bat before the July 30 deadline and improve an offense whose 402 runs scored are tied for 12th worst in the league, remains to be seen.
Nonetheless, this is a club that should be extremely interesting to watch over the final 66 games of a regular season that the Bucs are hoping that they can extend into the October postseason.
What follows is a report card type analysis of the Pirates by field positions through the first half of this season:
Starting pitching
Overall grade: A
Comments: There is almost always a learning curve for rookies in MLB, but Skenes has been overpowering and dominant from the get-go, hitting the ground running. His 6-0 record would be much better if the Pirates had scored more than the one run that they did in three of his 11 starts. Skenes enters the second half of this season as a strong candidate for the NL's Rookie of the Year award.
Keller did enough through the first half of this season to earn a second straight trip to the Midsummer Classic, although he didn't make the cut. Keller -- who sports a 10-5 record at the break -- has been a bastion of consistency over the past few years for the Pirates and put together a string of 49 straight starts in which he had worked five innings or more before the streak ended this past Sunday.
The Pirates' all-time team record in that category is 66 starts with five innings or more pitched, established by Wilbur Cooper over 100 years ago.
Jones and Falter have been pleasant surprises, with both doing their parts to strengthen what has been a fine starting rotation. But both will be on the sidelines with injuries to start the second half of the season. Jones suffered a minor lat strain in a July 5 outing against the St. Louis Cardinals and was placed on the 15-day Injured List. He is expected to be fit for duty during the stretch run in August and September.
Jones was a late addition to the Pirates' roster at the end of spring training and has more than justified the Bucs' faith in his ability, striking out 98 batters in 91 innings pitched and walking just 27. Like Skenes, Jones' 5-6 record in 16 starts should be much better, but he has suffered from both a lack of run and bullpen support in several non-decisions that could have been victories.
While Skenes, Jones and Keller could all be classified as power pitchers, Falter mixes speeds and keeps batters off-balance and guessing. Falter has a 4-7 record with a 4.08 ERA in 17 starts. After being acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies in a trade last season, Falter wound up 2-9 in 11 decisions with the Phillies and Pirates combined, and many were second-guessing the Pirates' decision to put him into the rotation at all at the outset of this season. But despite some struggles recently, Falter has done much to silence the naysayers, before going on the 15-day IL July 7 with left triceps tendonitis.
The availability, or lack thereof, of Jones and Falter in the Pirates' rotation early in the second half of the season will put added emphasis on the performance of veteran Perez and Ortiz.
Perez, acquired in the offseason after helping the Texas Rangers win a World Championship in 2023, has had his ups and downs this year, with a 1-5 record and 5.15 ERA in 14 starts, but adds a veteran presence to an otherwise young rotation. After being demoted to the minor leagues last year, Ortiz has been outstanding in both starting and long relief roles. He has turned in three consecutive outstanding performances in starting assignments and could become a regular part of the starting rotation very soon. Ortiz possesses a live arm and has sported a 4-2 record in 25 appearances with a 2.84 ERA this season, while striking out 57 and walking just 19 in 66ª innings pitched.
Priester, another youngster who has experienced his peaks and valleys between the major and minor leagues over the past two seasons, showed off his potential in a bulk pitching assignment last week, tossing six solid innings against Milwaukee while surrendering only two runs and striking out eight in a 12-2 Pirates' victory. That is the kind of effort that the Pirates are looking for consistently from the highly-touted Priester, and the type of performance that could enable him to earn a spot in the starting rotation in the future.
Gonzales returned to the rotation this past Friday after a long stint on the Injured List, and registered a solid five-inning effort against the Chicago White Sox, allowing only one run in a 4-1 Pirates' victory. His continued success would also be important to the Pirates' prospects for second-half success this season.
Bullpen
Overall grade: B-
Comments: The bullpen thus far has been an up-and-down unit that has 17 blown saves and played a role in squandering a bevy of outstanding efforts by the starting pitchers. Pittsburgh native David Bednar shook off some early-season physical problems with an injured lat that caused him to miss much of spring training and struggle in the season's opening weeks, but he has since returned to the pitching level that had earned him two All-Star selections in 2022 and 2023. On June 23, Bednar wound up on the Injured List again for 15 days with a strained left oblique. After doing a one-game rehab stint with the Curve, Bednar returned to the Pirates last Friday and notched his 16th consecutive save of the season.
Veteran lefty Aroldis Chapman, who was one of the premier closers for most of his career, is now 37 and showing some wear and tear after being acquired by the Pirates as a free agent last January. Chapman has gone through some erratic bouts with his control this season, and although he can still reach 103 miles per hour on the radar gun, opposing teams have often been able to catch up with the velocity.
Despite a few recent hiccups out of the bullpen, righty Colin Holderman continues to make his acquisition from the New York Mets last year look like an extremely good trade and has generally been very solid in the late innings after suffering through a bad bout of the flu in spring training that sidelined him for some time at the start of the season.
Due largely to injuries to a couple of key components, the Pirates' middle-inning relief corps has been spotty, with veteran left-hander Ryan Borucki missing a great chunk of the first half of the season due to injury, and promising righty Dauri Morieta sidelined for the entire year after undergoing offseason Tommy John surgery. Borucki, who, like Bednar, did a recent rehab stint with the Curve, is expected back soon and should bolster the Pirates' bullpen in the middle innings if healthy. Righties Kyle Nicolas and Carmen Mlodzinski have both been real decent, and Ortiz has provided a Swiss Army knife-type of versatility and effectiveness.
Infield
Overall grade: C
Comments: Third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes, who earned an NL Rawlings Gold Glove at the position last year, continues to play outstanding defense, but his offensive production -- possibly due to a chronic back issue -- has been lacking. Hayes, who was taken by the Pirates with the 32nd overall pick in the first round of the MLB Amateur Draft, has hit just .244, with only three home runs and 21 RBIs in 71 games. With nine hits in his last 25 at-bats, he has shown signs of rebounding at the plate lately, and much more will be needed from him in the second half of the season. Shorstop O'Neil Cruz is a five-tool talent who, with 14 home runs in the first half, gives the Pirates the threat of instant offense every time he steps up to the plate. But Cruz also strikes out plenty -- 112 times in 317 plate appearances this year -- and suffers some concentration lapses. Second baseman Nick Gonzales -- another highly-touted former first-round draft pick, has had a generally positive bounce-back since his demotion to the minor leagues last year, driving in 35 runs this season since his mid-May call-up from Indianapolis. He brings both an excellent glove and a potent bat to the table for the Bucs. First base was an albatross in the batting order until Rowdy Tellez -- who had hit 55 homers in the last three seasons combined with the Milwaukee Brewers before signing a one-year contract with the Pirates last offseason -- staged a complete turnaround in June, when he batted .333 (22 hits in 66 plate appearances with three home runs and 14 RBIs), after a combined woeful April and May in which had just 21 hits in 122 at-bats (.172 average), with no home runs and just five RBIs. Tellez has continued to display a hot bat in July, crushing four home runs while hitting safely in 12 of 36 at-bats. Connor Joe has been up-and-down with the bat while platooning with the left-handed-hitting Tellez at first base. Jared Triolo, who had a promising season offensively with the Pirates in 2023, has slipped at the plate this year, but gives the Bucs versatility with the ability to play all four infield positions.
Outfield
Overall grade: C
Comments: The grade for this group would be lower if it wasn't for another outstanding contribution from Bryan Reynolds, who has earned the second All-Star selection of his career. Reynolds is the Pirates' team leader in home runs (18), RBIs (61), hits (110) and batting average (.284), plays very good defensively in his primary left field position, and, as he has done his entire career with the Pirates, answers the bell consistently -- playing in every one of the team's 96 first-half games. Jack Suwinski has shown signs of improving at the plate in recent weeks, and has hit nine home runs this season, but he still has a batting average of just .174, and has struck out 75 times in 235 at-bats. Center fielder Michael A. Taylor, an American League Gold Glove recipient, covers a ton of ground and usually catches almost everything hit in his direction, but with just two home runs, 13 RBIs and a .203 batting average, hasn't provided nearly the offensive thump that he displayed last season while hitting 21 home runs with the Minnesota Twins. Edward Olivares, who hit 12 home runs last season as a member of the member of the Kansas City Royals, has been generally overwhelming so far this year, batting just .224 with five home runs. Olivares was recently optioned to Class AAA Indianapolis. The Pirates brought up Josh Palacios, who showed great promise as a rookie last season while belting 10 home runs, before missing most of this past spring training with a leg injury. Palacios hit two home runs in the week following his July 7 call-up to the Pirates.
Several media outlets reported recently that the Pirates have been involved in continuing discussions with the Los Angeles Angels about a trade that would bring outfielder-infielder Taylor Ward to Pittsburgh. Ward has hit 14 home runs and driven in 44 runs this season for the Angels.
Catcher
Grade: C-
Comments: Last November's season-ending shoulder injury suffered by promising youngster Endy Rodriquez while swinging a bat during winter ball, coupled with the struggles of 2021 top MLB draft pick Henry Davis, has made this position a problematic one. After a strong spring training, Davis floundered at the plate in the opening weeks of this season, batting just .162 before being demoted to Indianapolis May 3. Davis seemed to have worked some things out at Class AAA but struggled again after being recalled by the Pirates and was recently placed on concussion protocol while undergoing a rehab stint with the Curve. At this point, the Pirates may be having buyer's remorse with Davis, although it's probably too soon for the Bucs to know for sure that he doesn't have a future with them. Veteran Yasmani Grandal, a member of the White Sox last year, has seen his better days both offensively and defensively, and Joey Bart has had mixed results after being acquired from the Giants, but has hit six home runs. Jason Delay had some moments after being recalled from the minors in June but isn't being viewed as a long-term regular at the position. This is a position from which run production is generally expected, so there is much room for improvement at this spot for the Pirates.
Designated hitter
Grade: B
Comments: Franchise icon and fan favorite Andrew McCutchen signed his second consecutive one-year $5 million deal with the Pirates last winter and is proving that it isn't just window dressing. At the age of 37, the 2013 NL's MVP has moved into the leadoff position in the Pirates' batting order as a designated hitter and, despite a .226 batting average, has acquitted himself fairly well in a couple of areas, crushing 12 homers and displaying a strong knowledge of the strike zone, with a team-high 41 bases on balls drawn in 305 plate appearances.
Coaching staff
Grade: C
Comments: Derek Shelton is in his fifth season as the Pirates' manager, and it's a big one for both him and the club. Shelton arrived as Clint Hurdle's replacement under very adverse circumstances in the 2020 season, when the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic abbreviated the Pirates' schedule to just 60 games. The team's massive rebuilding project continued during both 2021 and 2022, when the Bucs suffered through consecutive 100-loss seasons, and extended into the 2023 season, when the Pirates improved to a 76-86 record. A winning season and at the very least a chance for a Wild Card playoff berth are the goals for the Pirates this year, and with their pitching, they could still achieve both, although their work will be cut out for them in the second half. Shelton's even-tempered personality and some curious on-the-field decisions have placed him into disfavor with some of the Pirates' fan base, but the wolves at his door will back off noticeably if the Pirates can have a strong second half and push their way into the postseason. Much-maligned batting coach Andy Haines may not be so lucky. Haines has been given much of the blame for the Pirates' offensive struggles and entered this season on a short leash which has grown even tighter. Pitching coach Oscar Marin deserves at least some of the credit for the Pirates' progress on the mound this year, although natural talents like Skenes, Jones, Keller and Bednar don't need much direction.
John Hartsock can be reached at jhartsock@altoonamirror.com.