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By Cory Giger
sports@altoonamirror.com
We need to talk about the future of minor league baseball and future of the Altoona Curve, because we soon could enter an era of unprecedented uncertainty regarding both.
I don't want to sound like an alarmist here, but Curve fans need to be aware of what is happening right now in the minor leagues and the possible ways it could impact Altoona's fantastic Double-A franchise.
If you've been paying attention in recent days, you may be aware that the Major League Baseball Players Association is trying to unionize minor league players. You've probably heard about how that is a good thing, because it would mean a lot more money and a better lifestyle for the minor leaguers.
All of that would be a very welcomed change, because for decades, minor leaguers have had to endure terrible wages and other difficulties while chasing their baseball dreams.
I fully expect the unionization concept to be passed and go into effect in the coming years.
But there could be a troubling side effect of minor league unionization.
Contraction.
Again.
Less than two years ago, Major League Baseball contracted 40 minor league franchises, dropping the number to 120. The folks at MLB did that as a cost-cutting measure because they knew minor leaguers were due to be getting raises, and there are a lot of people in the industry who felt like 160 minor league franchises was way too many.
The owners didn't want to keep paying players in the low minors who stood very little chance of getting to the big leagues, and they certainly didn't want to have to give those players raises. So, MLB axed 40 franchises, a crushing blow to communities around the country, and eliminated hundreds of player jobs.
If we do see the minor leagues unionized in the coming years, I feel extremely confident that a byproduct would be MLB deciding to cut costs by contracting more franchises.
Driving to and from the Penn State game at Purdue over the past two days, I spent a couple of hours on the phone with 8-10 of my closest sources around minor league baseball. All of them are in agreement with me that the contraction issue could be on the table if unionization passes, and several agreed with my assertion that contraction not only is likely, but also inevitable.
Think about it: If MLB owners have to pay minor leaguers more money because they are part of a union that can collectively bargain, then those owners are going to find a way to cut costs elsewhere to make up the difference. And their No. 1 way to cut costs could be to contract more minor league teams and further shrink the overall player pool.
Can I say this will happen for sure if there is unionization? No. But I would put it at 80 percent certainty.
Now, when MLB was cutting the number of teams to 120, I always knew the Curve would be safe. Again, we are talking about an excellent franchise that checks many of the boxes to ensure their viability — location, great ballpark, relationship with Pirates, etc.
If MLB cuts another 30 franchises to get the number down to 90, I believe -- and all of my sources agreed -- that the Curve still should be safe at that number.
Whew. So, breathe easy. Because that would ensure baseball in Altoona for many years to come.
But one of my sources, former Curve broadcaster and longtime minor league executive Jason Dambach, took my breath away when he mentioned something on my radio show this past week. He said he wouldn't be surprised that if in the next 10 years, MLB might cut the number of minor league franchises down to 60, leaving essentially Double-A and Triple-A clubs, with other minor leaguers playing at team complexes in Florida or Arizona where it's cheaper.
My heart sunk when JD said that. Because if — and it's a BIG if — that were to happen, then I don't believe the Curve would make the cut with only 60 minor league teams. The sources I contacted to hash all this out with pretty much all agreed: As good as the Curve situation is in so many ways, they could indeed get chopped in a 60-team model because there are bigger cities with good ballparks that would be in line ahead of Altoona.
Let that sink in.
I sincerely hope I'm wrong about all of this possibility. But covering this stuff for nearly 30 years and seeing how things are trending with the greedy owners, it frankly seems like common sense that their first reaction to player unionization and player raises would be to eliminate more franchises and cut the number of players.
We saw not too long ago that MLB doesn't care about minor league franchises and towns and would be willing to kill off clubs in order to save what really is a paltry amount of their budgets. If they have to pay 150 players $10,000 more a year, that would come to $1.5 million annually, and while you'd think that billion-dollar MLB teams could take that hit, I for one just cannot see them doing it without finding another way to cut costs.
The best thing I can say right now is that none of this is imminent, meaning in the next few years. There are lots of things that need to happen with the unionization process and then negotiations after that.
But over the next 5-10 years, we very well could be going through the contraction stuff yet again, with more franchises and towns worrying about their futures.
We can only hope the Curve and Altoona will continue to be spared from the chopping block. And again, even if it goes to 90 teams, I would still love the Curve's chances.
But if worst comes to worst and MLB ever decides it only needs 60 minor league franchises ... again, my heart sinks even thinking about the terrible possibility of the Curve getting left out.
Cory Giger has covered the Curve since 1999 and is the longest-tenured minor league beat writer for one team in the country.