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Joe Brady's first game as Buffalo's coach will be a major challenge against DeMeco Ryans and his stingy defense in Houston on Sunday.
C.J. Stroud plays his first game since his turnover debacle in the playoffs. Pro Picks has Josh Allen and the Bills (-1.5) beating the Texans in the AFC title game. TEXANS, 19-17
Elsewhere:
NEW YORK JETS at TENNESSEE (-1.5): Robert Saleh's first game as coach of the Titans is against the team that fired him in 2024. He has Cam Ward. The Jets have Geno Smith. Saleh is in a better spot now. TITANS, 19-16
NEW ORLEANS at DETROIT (-6.5): Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and the Lions have too much offense for the Saints, who had a promising finish last season but lost a few key players in training camp. LIONS, 30-20
CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE (-8.5): The Jaguars won 13 games last season and have most of their starters back. The Browns traded Garrett and are giving Deshaun Watson his first start since Oct. 20, 2024. This won't be close. JAGUARS, 27-12
CHICAGO (-3) at CAROLINA: Both teams won their division last season though Carolina did it with a losing record. Expectations are high for Caleb Williams in his second season in Ben Johnson's offense. Get ready for the first "Good, better, best" chant in Chicago's locker room of the new season. Not predicting whether Johnson keeps his shirt on. BEARS, 24-18
TAMPA BAY at CINCINNATI (-3.5): After starting 0-2 four times in Joe Burrow's first five seasons, the Bengals opened 3-0 last year before things went downhill. They bolstered their defense to go with a prolific offense. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers will be a tough test for that new-look defense featuring Dexter Lawrence. BENGALS, 26-24
ATLANTA at PITTSBURGH (-3.5): Tua Tagovailoa and Kevin Stefanski try to spoil Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy's reunion. Bijan Robinson gives the Falcons their best chance. Rodgers goes against a depleted pass rush so he should have time to throw to DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman. STEELERS, 24-17
BALTIMORE (-3.5) at INDIANAPOLIS: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and the Ravens have high expectations in coach Jesse Minter's first season. Daniel Jones is back for Indianapolis. So is Sauce Gardner. The Colts finished last season with seven straight losses after opening 8-2. RAVENS, 23-20
GREEN BAY (-1.5) at MINNESOTA: Jordan Love and the Packers were 0-5 without Micah Parsons last season. He's not back until October so they can't afford to wait for a win. Kyler Murray makes his first start for the Vikings, aiming to become Kevin O'Connell's next reclamation project. VIKINGS, 23-20
WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA (-5.5): Jalen Hurts begins his fifth straight season with a new offensive coordinator as Sean Mannion replaced Kevin Patullo. Hurts could have a big year if Mannion unlocks Saquon Barkley and the run game. The Commanders had a terrible defense last season. They added Sonny Styles and some veterans but a banged-up offensive line will struggle protecting Jayden Daniels against Philadelphia's fierce defense. BEST BET: EAGLES, 31-16
MIAMI at LAS VEGAS (-3.5): Two rookie coaches meet in a matchup of two teams that aren't going to win many games. Kirk Cousins and the Raiders get the first one, though stopping Dolphins running back De'Von Achane will be a tough task for Las Vegas' defense. RAIDERS, 20-17
ARIZONA at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-9.5): Jim Harbaugh's Chargers have won 11 games in each of his first two seasons and brought in Mike McDaniel to run the offense led by Justin Herbert. Rookie coach Mike LaFleur is starting the season with veteran Jacoby Brissett. Los Angeles has dominated inferior teams under Harbaugh. CHARGERS, 30-16
DALLAS (-3) at NEW YORK GIANTS: The Cowboys can score behind Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. They hope new coordinator Christian Parker, rookie safety Caleb Downs and other additions improve the defense enough to make them a contender. John Harbaugh is the new man in charge in New York. Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo and the rest of the Giants will be better for it. Not enough to win this week. COWBOYS, 26-20
DENVER at KANSAS CITY (-2.5): Patrick Mahomes is back after tearing his ACL last Dec. 14 and the Chiefs are coming off their first losing season under Andy Reid. He faces one of the NFL's best defenses. Bo Nix returns for the Broncos after an ankle injury forced him to miss the AFC championship game. Denver has won three in a row in the series and four of five. UPSET SPECIAL: BRONCOS, 23-20
2025
Overall: Straight up: 194-90-1. Against spread: 149-128-8.
Best Bet: Straight up: 15-6. Against spread: 9-11-1.
Upset Special: Straight up: 14-7. Against spread: 15-6.