New York Mets' Pete Alonso celebrates his three-run home run during sixth inning at the MLB baseball All-Star game between the American League and National League, Tuesday, July 15, 2025, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart)

ATLANTA — Looming over baseball is a likely lockout in December 2026, a possible management push for a salary cap and perhaps lost regular-season games for the first time since 1995.

“No one’s talking about it, but we all know that they’re going to lock us out for it, and then we’re going to miss time,” New York Mets All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso said Monday at the All-Star Game. “We’re definitely going to fight to not have a salary cap and the league’s obviously not going to like that.”

Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred and some owners have cited payroll disparity as a problem, while at the same time MLB is working to address a revenue decline from regional sports networks. Unlike the NFL, NBA and NHL, baseball has never had a salary cap because its players staunchly oppose one.

Despite higher levels of luxury tax that started in 2022, the World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets have pushed payrolls to record levels. The last small-market MLB club to win a World Series was the Kansas City Royals in 2015.

After signing outfielder Juan Soto to a record $765 million contract, New York opened this season with an industry-high $326 million payroll, nearly five times Miami’s $69 million, according to Major League Baseball’s figures. Using luxury tax payrolls, based on average annual values that account for future commitments and include benefits, the Dodgers were first at $400 million and on track to owe a record luxury tax of about $151 million — shattering the previous tax record of $103 million set by Los Angeles last year.

“When I talk to the players, I don’t try to convince them that a salary cap system would be a good thing,” Manfred told the Baseball Writers’ Association of America on Tuesday. “I identify a problem in the media business and explain to them that owners need to change to address that problem. I then identify a second problem that we need to work together and that is that there are fans in a lot of our markets who feel like we have a competitive balance problem.”

Baseball’s collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, 2026, and management lockouts have become the norm, which shifts the start of a stoppage to the offseason. During the last negotiations, the sides reached a five-year deal on March 10 after a 99-day lockout, salvaging a 162-game 2022 season.

“A cap is not about a partnership. A cap isn’t about growing the game,” union head Tony Clark said Tuesday. “A cap is about franchise values and profits. … A salary cap historically has limited contract guarantees associated with it, literally pits one player against another and is often what we share with players as the definitive non-competitive system. It doesn’t reward excellence. It undermines it from an organizational standpoint. That’s why this is not about competitive balance. It’s not about a fair versus not. This is institutionalized collusion.”

The union’s opposition to a cap has paved the way for record-breaking salaries for star players. Soto’s deal is believed to be the richest in pro sports history, eclipsing Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million deal with the Dodgers signed a year earlier. By comparison, the biggest guaranteed contract in the NFL is $250 million for Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.

Manfred cites that 10% of players earn 72% of salaries.

Broadcast deals

Manfred says the sport is in better position to reach national broadcasting agreements for 2026-28 after he attended the annual Allen & Co. Conference of media and finance leaders in Idaho.

ESPN said in February it was ending after this season its agreement to broadcast Sunday night games, the All-Star Home Run Derby and the Wild Card Series. MLB’s other agreements, with Fox and TBS, run through the 2028 season, and MLB wants all its national broadcast contracts to end at the same time.

Manfred said in early June he hoped to reach a deal before the All-Star break.

“I had a great week last week. I was in Sun Valley,” he told the Baseball Writers’ Association of America on Tuesday. “I had lot of conversations that moved us significantly closer to a deal and I don’t believe it’s going to be long.”

MLB in Olympics?

Manfred and players’ union head Tony Clark say plans are moving ahead exploring the possibility of using major leaguers in the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, a tournament that could be played on an extended All-Star break.

“I think it is a opportunity to market the game on a really global stage,” Manfred told the Baseball Writers’ Association of America on Tuesday. “Obviously the clubs are going to have to endorse this. I mean, it’s a big deal.”

MLB met with Los Angeles organizers Monday in Atlanta ahead of the All-Star Game and Manfred said the Olympic officials were meeting with the Major League Baseball Players Association.

“There’s a lot of work that still needs to be done,” Clark told the BBWAA in a separate session. “We do know players are interested in playing, whether it’s for the Team USA or any number of other teams around the world. … There’s just a lot of conversation that needs to be had sooner rather than later to see how viable this is, but we’re hopeful that we can figure our way through it for the benefit of the game.”

Elsewhere:

– Retired MLB pitcher Daniel Serafini, a former Pittsburgh Pirate, was convicted of first-degree murder and attempted murder in the shootings of his wife’s parents during a burglary at their home four years ago near Lake Tahoe in California. A Placer County jury on Monday found the 51-year-old guilty of killing his father-in-law, Gary Spohr, and severely wounding his mother-in-law, Wendy Wood, on June 5, 2021, at their home on the lake’s west shore. Wood received extensive rehabilitation but died a year after the shooting.

– Big Dumper helped drive a big boost to ratings for Monday night’s Home Run Derby. ESPN said Tuesday that viewership for Cal Raleigh’s Home Run Derby victory was up 5% from 2024, according to Nielsen ratings. Raleigh’s win over fellow finalist Junior Caminero of Tampa Bay drew an average audience of 5,729,000 viewers, up from 5,451,000 viewers in 2024 when Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Teoscar Hernández topped Bobby Witt Jr. in the finals.