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By Bill Contz
For the Mirror
If recent local transfer portal activity is any indication, future scholarship offers to borderline Division I recruits (those rated three-star or lower) may go the way of the eight-track tape.
Pitt lured receiver Konata Mumpfield away from Akron where he posted monster numbers during his freshman campaign, noteworthy since the Zips were the only FBS school to offer him a scholarship.
Western Kentucky's Mitchell Tinsley, along with his 85 catches and 1,402 yards, heads to Happy Valley to nab spirals from either Sean Clifford or highly-touted newcomer Drew Allar.
To quote PSU receivers' coach Taylor Stubblefield "(we want) somebody who can be dynamic...somebody who has shown production."
Overachievers from lower-tier programs simply looking to showcase their talents against better competition. No harm, no foul and a win-win for everyone, right?
Wrong.
A revolution is now underway, a paradigm shift that may undermine the future of both small college football and who attracts interest during high school recruiting.
A different caliber of portal candidate is emerging. The former high school phenom buried on some distant depth chart seeking playing time elsewhere is being supplanted by players who have proven themselves at smaller schools and now looking to compete at a higher level.
This poses a threat to the high schooler rated as a long-range project since a more seasoned player with a tangible pedigree at the FCS level or a prover performer who has fallen out of favor under some new regime at the D-I level are better choices to address an immediate need.
College football's transfer portal has become a game of musical chairs where known commodities seek out lucrative opportunities not offered at the schools where they're currently enrolled. It's NFL free agency without the salary cap with NIL compensation replacing signing bonuses.
My crystal ball affords me a peek at the possible future of college football, and I don't like what I see.
I envision smaller FCS schools devolving into feeder programs focusing on talent development -- proving grounds for those wishing to serve short-term apprenticeships, hone their craft, then advance to a Power 5 program looking for plug-and-play starters.
The role that coaches at these feeder schools play will mirror that of a minor league baseball manager.
Athletes who prove to be quick-study overachievers at this level will surface and attract interest resulting in significant annual roster upheaval.
Rosters at selected Power-5 schools where influential alumni openly express dissatisfaction over consecutive .500 seasons will also be in a virtual constant state of flux.
To see a future where nearly every five-star, can't miss, blue chipper will forgo the remainder of their high school career on or before the early signing date since their newly-minted NIL deals obligate them to perform exclusively at (essentially becoming the property of) the institutions of higher learning they'll sign with.
Hot-commodity head coaches will continue breaking their existing contracts for higher compensation found elsewhere and, with the ink still drying on their new agreements, aggressively cultivate commodities from the schools they left behind.
Situations similar to Lincoln Riley's move from Oklahoma to USC and the exodus taking place in Norman will become commonplace.
Contz was a starting offensive tackle on Penn State's first national championship team in 1982 and played six NFL seasons with New Orleans and Cleveland. He published a book in 2017, "When the Lions Roared: Joe Paterno and One of College Football's Greatest Teams." He resides in Pittsburgh.