Another Reagan moment
Local voices
During the 1980 presidential election, candidate Ronald Reagan famously asked this rhetorical question of the viewing audience in a debate with President Jimmy Carter, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”
At that time, inflation was inflicting great economic damage on the audience.
The audience knew it and held then-President Jimmy Carter accountable for it.
This question, and the way viewers answered it, likely contributed greatly to Reagan’s landslide election victory that year.
With the 2024 presidential debates and election approaching, we may be approaching another “Reagan moment.”
In my opinion, the question should be asked again.
My research indicates that the annual rate of inflation was 7% in 2021, 6.5% in 2022, 3.4% in 2023, and is projected to be 3.1% in 2024.
Compounding these rates reveals that the cost of living is more than 20% higher than at President Joe Biden’s Inauguration.
In order to determine if one is better off or not, one must look at how rapidly wage income grew during that period.
Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that wage income did not keep up with the cost-of-living increases.
So, by that metric, voters are worse off.
Another way to look at the question is to compare one’s current income with what it was four years ago.
The question would be, “Is my income 20% higher than it was four years ago?”
Either way one looks at the question, a majority of voters will likely answer it negatively.
This is not the way the U.S. economy usually works.
With our competitive market system, entrepreneurs have an incentive to invest in new and better technologies and equipment to produce more products and innovate new ones.
Employees become more valuable and competition forces employers to share these gains with employees. So, there is a natural tendency for wages to rise over time.
Inflation robs employees of these gains.
From an employee perspective, that’s why inflation is bad.
Retirees will likely feel this pain even more as their income is even less likely to keep up with inflation.
Inflation is a sneaky thief. We barely notice it — one day at a time. But over time, many prices of the things we buy go up. That’s why it may be useful to look at longer periods of time. The effect is clearer with that perspective.
Some argue that inflation is declining, so it’s not an issue. That rationalization ignores two important facts.
First, when inflation declines, we just get poorer at a slower rate.
It will take longer for our cost of living to double, but it will still double.
Second, as our cost-of-living increases, it stays up and almost never declines.
So, we should view the inflation of the past four years as permanent.
My cost of living will be 20% higher the rest of my life. Younger people will bear this burden for decades.
This November, voters should ask themselves this key question and make the answer part of their election decision process.
Gable is an occasional contributor to the Mirror’s Opinion page, often commenting on the economy. He resides in Altoona.