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Demographic trends that have shaped Pennsylvania for some time are expected to continue during the next decade, according to a new report from the state Independent Fiscal Office.
The Pennsylvania Demographic Outlook points to stagnant population growth, a decline in school-age children and working age adults and growing numbers of elderly as the dominant trends.
These findings carry implications for Pennsylvania's fiscal, economic, political and social outlook in coming years. The numbers driving these trends are fewer births, more deaths and a decline in in-state migration of people.
The number of births contracts while the number of deaths increases.
From 2020-25, deaths outnumbered births by 79,000, the report said. This trend is projected to accelerate, with deaths outnumbering births by 119,000 from 2025-30 and 213,000 from 2030-35.
While international migration was strong from 2020-25, it is projected to moderate over the next decade.
The state's population grew 0.5% to 13,059,000 million from 2020-25 and is projected to decline 0.1% in the near term and then 0.8% during the long term.
The school-age group (age 0 to 19) declined 3.1% from 2020-25 and is projected to decline 3.9% in the near term and then an additional 4.0% during the long term. This is primarily due to the drop in the number of births.
New reporting
Four out of five school districts in Pennsylvania saw their enrollments drop ahead of the 2025-26 school year, state data show, according to an Oct. 16 Capitol/Wire State Affairs story.
The number of students enrolled in Pennsylvania schools dropped by 20,000 students total.
The demographic situation will only worsen in the years ahead, state projections reveal.
Over the next decade, the number of students attending Pennsylvania schools is expected to drop 6%, with nearly 90,000 fewer students attending class.
Meanwhile, the working-age (age 20 to 64) declined 2.1% from 2020-25 and is projected to contract by 1.5% in the near term and then by 0.4% during the long term. In 2026, this group includes mostly Generation X (born 1965-80), Millennials (born 1981-97) and a portion of Generation Z (born 1998 to 2015), according to the report.
"Working-age residents remit the majority of state tax revenues that support dependents attending school and retiree/advanced-age residents who may require specialized healthcare services," the report said.
The retiree group (age 65 to 79) increased 13.4% from 2020-25 and is projected to expand 3.4% in the near term and then decline by 4.8% during the long term. In 2025, this group includes most of the Baby Boomer Generation (born 1946-64). The decline from 2030-35 is primarily due to the transition of the large Baby Boomer Generation to the advanced age cohort.
The advanced age group (age 80+) increased 9.8% from 2020-25 and is projected to expand 20.9% in the near term and then 18.0% during the long term. Demographers noticed the rise of the 80+ group as a demographic factor as early as the 1980s.
Demographers commonly use two metrics known as dependency ratios to illustrate the relationships between the three groups.
From 2025-35, the Pennsylvania working-age to retiree ratio is projected to decline from 2.6 (2025) to 2.4 (2035), or 2.4 working-age residents for every resident age 65+.
During the same time frame, the working-age to youth ratio is expected to gradually increase from 2.5 (2025) to 2.7 (2035). This upward trend directly corresponds to a decline in birth rates and the number of females of childbearing age.