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The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) warns that rapidly growing demand for electric power fueled by data centers can create serious supply risks.
The PUC released an independent analysis conducted by Synapse Energy Economics this week finding that the current load forecast for the regional electric grid will fail to meet the reliability standard set by grid operator PJM starting next year.
By 2030, the model for reliability risk is nearly six times worse than PJM's planning standard, the PUC said.
"This result is mainly due to large-load additions stemming from data center additions, which are projected to surge in 2030," the Synapse analysis said.
Synapse modeled various future scenarios, including one with a worst case scenario and one where no new data centers are built.
The analysis doesn't predict that customers will experience a specific number of outages, the PUC said. Rather, it illustrates the magnitude of the reliability risk if unprecedented increases in electricity demand significantly outpace the resources available to serve it.
"This analysis sends a clear warning: electricity demand and supply are moving out of balance, and the status quo is not sustainable," said PUC Chair Stephen DeFrank. "We need urgent action at PJM and a broader Pennsylvania energy strategy that makes sure our supply of electricity keeps pace with demand."
The analysis comes at a time when electric demand is rising due to data centers and electric cars and older coal-fired plants are taken off line.
No consensus on new state energy policy
Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro and the Republican-controlled Senate don't agree on a new state energy policy.
PJM is making changes to its operations and has warned of a reliability crisis too.
PJM plans to hold a special capacity auction starting later this month to obtain electric power commitments from producers to close a shortfall from an auction held last June.
"The growing problem of electric reliability is not just demand, but a lack of supply," said Senate Majority Leader Joe Pittman, R-Indiana, in a statement on Monday.
He blamed Pennsylvania's former participation in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative for bringing a lack of stability for energy producers
Pittman cited the Three Mile Island and Homer City projects as welcome examples of data centers bringing their own power sources.
Shapiro gave the PUC new tasks as part of his executive order designed to rein in rampant growth of data centers.