The political drumbeat is sounding about a renewed effort to flip the state Senate long controlled by Republicans next year.

The relatively narrow GOP hold of the Senate with a 27-23 split and Democratic victories in state judiciary races and suburbs in metro areas last month feed the buzz as Democratic Senate challengers announce for 2026.

But the weight of history argues against it.

Except for a short interval in the early 1990s, Republicans have controlled the Senate since 1980.

They have weathered successive state budget deadlocks, the legislative pay raise controversy and the tricky knot of school property tax reform.

The GOP Senate has been a thorn in the side of four Democratic governors, Robert P. Casey, Ed Rendell, Tom Wolf and Josh Shapiro, and arguably, one-term GOP Gov. Tom Corbett.

“Taking the Senate has been an elusive proposition for Democrats in this state for generations,” said Christopher Borick, political science professor at Muhlenberg College.

“There have been cycles where they saw a path to the majority only to fall short. I think in 2026 that scenario may play out once again but there are factors that give Democrats more hope than at any time in recent history,” he said.

“The confluence of more favorable district lines, a cycle that is likely to be difficult for Republicans and a relatively small number of seats to flip make 2026 tantalizing for Democrats and perhaps place their holy grail in reach,” said Borick.

Next year Democrats are targeting four GOP Senate districts during an election when even-numbered seats are on the ballot.

The districts are held by Sens. Frank Farry, R-Bucks; Tracy Pennycuick, R-Bucks; Jarrett Coleman, R-Lehigh, and Rosemary Brown, R-Monroe, said Jalen Nix, executive director of the Pennsylvania Senate Democratic Campaign Committee.

Democrats have identified candidates to challenge Farry, Pennycuick and Brown, he said.

And Democrats need to keep the seat of Sen. James Malone, D-Lancaster, who won a special election to take that traditional GOP district earlier this year.

Nix discussed caucus prospects recently in comments to Represent PA, a progressive women’s group. A video of his comments are available on YouTube.

“The wind is at our backs right now,” he told the group citing voter dissatisfaction with the economy and President Donald Trump’s policies and the blue vote wave last month.

A Democratic-controlled Senate would advance legislation on the minimum wage, reproductive rights, health care and worker safety that are blocked by Republicans, added Nix.

The national Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is upping the ante by targeting more than 650 state legislative seats to flip in 2026, The New York Times reported.

Senate Republicans said they have a good record to run on.

“Pennsylvanians re-elected a Republican State Senate in 2024 because they want a check on Democrat overspending in order to prevent tax increases and to support commonsense immigration and law enforcement policies,” said Michael Straw, spokesman for the Pennsylvania Senate Republican Campaign Committee.

“Voters have repeatedly trusted the results and message of our candidates for the State Senate,” he said. “We are ready to run on our record in 2026 to defend and grow our majority.”

A legacy to overcome

The House, where Democrats hold a tenuous one-vote majority, is usually the chamber that flips from one party to the other.

The House has changed hands five times since 1980.

The Senate’s sole flip from Republican to Democratic control since 1980 came at the end of 1992. This was helped when GOP senator Frank Pecora switched parties after his district moved across the state with reapportionment.

Republicans regained the Senate in a 1994 wave election.

Senate Democrats thought several times that victory was theirs only to be disappointed when an incumbent was unexpectedly ousted.

This is a recurring pattern seen in Republican Melissa Hart’s 1990 win over incumbent Democrat Joseph Regoli, Republican Bob Regola’s 2004 win over Democratic incumbent Allen Kukovich and Republican Joe Picozzi’s 2024 win over Democratic incumbent Jimmy Dillon.

Pennsylvania elections have been volatile during the past decade.

The presidential race swung between Trump, Joe Biden and then back to Trump again.

Democrats underperformed in 2024 with U.S. Sen. Bob Casey losing by a small margin to Republican David McCormick.

They bounced back last month winning three Supreme Court retention races, key county executive races in Erie, Lehigh and Northampton Counties and flipping long-held GOP townships in the Harrisburg area.

After the 2024 election, Senate Republicans unveiled a map on their website showing members in every part of Pennsylvania

This reporter was present when Democrats held the Senate during the decade of the 1970s.

They could have drawn a similar map with footholds in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and southwest Pennsylvania and districts centered around mid-sized cities in Scranton, Erie, Johnstown, Reading, Indiana, Sunbury and State College.