Gridlock in state budget talks shows no signs of letup
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Nearly three months after the June 30 deadline to get a spending plan in place, there's little hint that a deal to end the state budget impasse is close.
For much of the summer, public debate surrounding the impasse largely focused on the standoff over how to provide a funding boost for the state's mass transit agencies. As lawmakers failed to reach a consensus on the transit funding, the state's largest transit agency, the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority, moved to cut routes and increase fares.
But after that plan was challenged in court, a judge blocked it, prompting SEPTA to take a route originally pitched by Senate Republicans -- tapping into capital savings accounts to pay for operating expenses. Shortly after that, the state's second largest transit agency, Pittsburgh Regional Transit, did likewise.
With transit funding solved for the short term, it seemed like Democrats who hold a one-seat majority in the House, Republicans who hold the majority in the Senate, and Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro might be able to find a path to compromise.
Not yet.
So what's the holdup?
Political observers on both sides of the aisle said there appears to be no single issue standing in the way of a deal other than the crucial question of how much the state should spend.
One factor might just be that there isn't enough public attention to compel lawmakers to feel like they need to make a deal. While school districts, counties and nonprofits are feeling the squeeze, most people see and feel little impact from the impasse. Government offices and services are still available and government workers are still getting paid.
On top of that, with so much media attention being directed at the various controversies unfolding at the federal level, state lawmakers aren't facing heat over the budget impasse.
"Very few people more than five miles outside (Harrisburg) even know the state has a budget that's overdue. It's like big-time news for us here, but if you run into some person in Johnstown and ask them, they're not going to know anything about it or really care," said Christopher Nicholas, a Republican campaign strategist.
"I don't think they're that far away," said Marc Stier, executive director of the Pennsylvania Policy Center. "If there was either public pressure because people could pay attention to this instead of worrying about what Trump's going to do next, or because there was a lot of damage being done because the state government's mostly shut down, I think they could make a deal easily."
But with little external pressure to find a compromise, both sides have taken to pointing fingers at each other to place blame for the standoff.
"I think it's all politics from the Republicans in the Senate caucus," Stier said. "We feel like Shapiro has made a bunch of concessions. So you really can't blame him. He has made concessions I wish he wouldn't have made."
Stier said any budget enacted now is going to be austere so there's little benefit to the public in pushing for further cuts.
"People are hurting. Schools are hurting. Human service agencies are hurting," Stier said. "What the hell? I mean, if the people on the right think that we can make massive cuts in spending, they're crazy."
Political fallout?
Shapiro has accused Senate Republicans of foot-dragging to try to inflict political damage upon him as he prepares to run for reelection in 2026.
Stephen Bloom, vice president of the Commonwealth Foundation and a former state representative, dismissed that suggestion.
"I feel like there's a good-faith effort at some level of both in the Republican-
controlled Senate, the Democratically controlled House, and the Governor's office to get a deal in the works being moved forward," Bloom said. "Everyone has other important things they would like to work on if the budget could be resolved ... but I don't think it's good for anyone. It's one of those things that generally makes people feel frustrated with their government that a consensus can't be reached."
Bloom noted, though, that the fact that this is not an election year for state lawmakers also diminishes the pressure to get a deal completed.
Nicholas said he doesn't see why Shapiro and Democrats are pushing to pass a budget this year that could drain the state's savings, making it difficult to pass a budget next year when Shapiro and many lawmakers will be up for reelection.
"You're setting yourself up next year to have to borrow a lot of money or raise taxes, which I don't understand why he would want that confrontation next year," Nicholas said.
Democrats are looking ahead to 2026, but for a different reason. They hope to use the anger of the mass transit funding controversy to target Republican lawmakers in the southeast -- particularly Sen. Tracy Pennycuick, R-Bucks, Sen. Frank Farry, R-Bucks.
Stier said that during the transit funding debate, Republican lawmakers characterized the dispute as a battle between the interests of urban and suburban communities against the interests of the state's rural communities.
"That really rubbed people the wrong way," Stier said.
Nicholas, on the other hand, said he doubts the transit funding controversy will rear its head during the 2026 elections. The areas of Bucks County represented by
Pennycuick and Farry are not as dependent on SEPTA as other areas of the southeast, he said.
And the issue just won't move the needle for enough voters, he said.
"Envision the voter who's going to go into the voting booth and change their vote from last time based on ... fill in the blank," Nicholas said. "In this case, I can't envision that voter."
Where do things stand now?
Shapiro's original proposal called for spending $51.5 billion -- which would be the first time the state budget ever exceeded $50 billion.
Republicans have criticized the governor's proposal for relying on sources of revenue that don't exist yet -- legalizing adult use of marijuana and taxing skill games -- and he proposed dipping into the state's Rainy Day Fund to balance the budget. Senate Republicans last month passed a $47.6 billion budget that would have flat-funded programs but Democrats refused to back it.
Shapiro has indicated during the impasse that he's willing to accept a deal that spends less, but negotiators have apparently not been able to find common ground.
"Typically, at some point, there's a number. You've got to come up with a number (to spend) that both sides have to agree upon," Bloom said. "Once they pick that number and people coalesce around it, then they usually are able to start to leverage the other issues that are important and make some compromises and agreements and ultimately a budget gets done."
Stier said he thinks Shapiro's already agreed to reduce the spend amount enough for both sides to reach a deal to end the impasse.
"We do feel like Shapiro has made a bunch of concessions, so you really can't blame him," Stier said. "He has made concessions, a lot of concessions I wish he hadn't made. He's trying to reach a bipartisan agreement."