Officials: Local votes unlikely to change

Area politicians say Trump verdict won’t sway voters’ choices in general election

Donald Trump's 34 felony convictions this week in the Stormy Daniels hush money case are unlikely to change many votes in November's presidential election, because most voters are entrenched in their opinions about the presumed Republican candidate -- pro or con, according to politically connected individuals contacted Friday by the Mirror.

"Probably 95 percent of the electorate has their minds made up," said State Rep. Lou Schmitt, R-Altoona.

Nevertheless, a slice of moderate Republicans and conservative Democrats remain undecided, and their ultimate choices in the ballot box could be critical in the critical battleground states -- including Pennsylvania, according to Schmitt.

Trump's convictions could affect their voting either way, with some individuals seeing the New York trial as political persecution, while others could see it as "the final nail in the coffin" sealing an unsavory reputation, according to Schmitt.

Such uncertainty about the effect of what is normally a political catastrophe is unique to Trump, for whom traditionally damaging news is often beneficial, according to Schmitt.

"In the end, this (New York case) could help him get elected," Schmitt said.

Conversely, the six months between now and the election is a campaign "eternity," which could render the convictions all but forgotten, Schmitt said, adding that Trump is the political equivalent of Teflon.

Former Democratic candidate for Blair County Commissioner Carol Taylor agrees.

The New York convictions "would have created a much bigger problem for anyone else," Taylor said.

Yet the convictions could create problems for Republicans, even if they won't dislodge Trump's supporters, according to Scott Barger, Republican nominee for the 80th Pennsylvania House district.

They are likely to limit Trump's ability to campaign, and they may also distract Republicans from "prosecuting" their own case against the Biden economy, Barger said.

Republicans need to steer the conversation away from Trump's legal problems and onto the economy, or it could be "tough to win in the fall," Barger said.

The New York case, as well as the three other pending criminal cases against Trump, are part of the "baggage" that Republicans talked about, then accepted in nominating Trump, according to Barger.

"Now we have to deal with it," he said.

Blair County Democratic Committee Chairwoman Gillian Kratzer had a similar outlook, but from the opposite perspective.

The convictions aren't likely to change the minds of Trump supporters, so Democrats need "to keep their noses to the grindstone and keep working to get our people elected," Kratzer said.

The New York case seems politically motivated to him, according to Barger.

"I'm not saying that Trump is innocent of everything," Barger said.

But the down-the-line felony charges are unusual enough that the trial must either be "a slam dunk case or there was some bias," Barger said.

U.S. Rep. John Joyce didn't qualify his opinion like Barger did.

"From day one, far-left prosecutors have targeted President Trump and carried out a brazen political attack against the Republican nominee for President," Joyce stated in a text sent by a spokesman. "Today's decision does nothing to change the fact that President Biden has failed the American people and that President Trump will win back the White House this November."

There was no bias in the New York case, as any other candidate who had "engaged in such behavior" would have ended up in a courtroom too, according to Taylor.

Trump actually tends to get off lightly in legal matters, because he is an ex-president, and because people "tread lightly" with him, Taylor said.

The jury that unanimously decided to convict him was composed of people who'd been selected by the two sides for objectivity, which supports the validity of their finding of guilt, she said.

Democratic Blair County Commissioner Laura Burke, who looked at the situation from a wider perspective, was asked whether the convictions ought to indicate to voters that Trump is unfit for the presidency.

"He was unfit when he was elected the last time," Burke said.

"It's kind of sad" that a former president has become a convicted felon and is in line for re-election, Burke said.

She doesn't know how things have come to such a pass, but contributing factors may include widespread disillusion with the political system and government, large swaths of the population failing to exercise their right to vote, while not being politically engaged or politically informed, she said.

The failure of campaign funding reform has also contributed, with big money donors able to buy an overwhelming number of influential messages on TV and social media, according to Burke.

Now federal bipartisanship is virtually dead, according to Burke.

Things are "fractured," she said.

People used to disagree about the means in the pursuit of the same ends, but now it's "red vs. blue," she said.

Mirror Staff Writer William Kibler is at 814-949-7038.