Shrinking recovery number tells tale

Those considered recovered plummets to 58 percent

It’s a minor statistical change, but a telling indicator of how much the coronavirus has surged in Pennsylvania recently:

On Oct. 6, the share of people recovered from COVID-19 — those who had survived 30 days after testing positive — was 82 percent, a number that had been stable for many weeks.

By Friday, that recovery number had dipped to 58 percent, meaning that despite the pandemic having lasted for nine months, 42 percent of all infected residents in the state have tested positive within the last 30 days.

The state set a record for new cases Friday at 11,763, several hundred more than the record it set Thursday — and 3,000 more than the previous record, set a week ago.

Also Friday, for the second day in a row, the state set a record for hospitalizations, exceeding 5,000 for the first time.

And for the second day in a row, the number of patients in intensive care statewide was over 1,000.

On Thursday, the six local counties set a record for deaths, with 35 — bringing the total number of local deaths to 365.

Cambria County now has the most, with 89, after 21 deaths in two days.

Blair County now has the second most, with 78.

There have been 204 deaths in long-term care facilities in the local counties, or 55 percent of the total number of COVID-19 deaths in the area.

There have been 2,101 resident infections and 290 employee infections in 83 facilities.

All six counties Friday were over the thresholds of concern for the two key indicators on the state’s Early Warning COVID-19 Dashboard — 50 infections per 100,000 people in the past week and 5 percent positivity for testing in the past week.

Cambria County has the most egregious incidence rate at 745, or 14 times the threshold. Its positivity rate is 19.3 percent.

Bedford County has the highest positivity rate at 28.4 percent or 5.6 times the threshold. Bedford’s incidence rate is 456.

Blair County has the most concerning differential between the average daily number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients for the most recent week and for the previous week, at plus 64.

None of the other counties have differentials higher than 11.

Blair’s incidence rate is 594, and its positivity rate is 15.9 percent.

Centre County’s incidence rate is 306, with a positivity rate of 12.6 percent.

Clearfield County’s incidence rate is 570 with a positivity rate of 16.2 percent.

Huntingdon County’s incidence rate is 301, and its positivity rate is 18.7 percent.

The incidence rate for Pennsylvania as a whole is 380 and its positivity rate 14.4 percent.

All the incidence and positivity rates for the local counties and the state as a whole are higher this week, except the incidence rates for Centre and Huntingdon counties.


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