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State COVID-19 case number hits new high

The daily count of new coronavirus cases statewide has been climbing, and on Friday, it reached its highest level for the entire pandemic at 2,219 — exceeding by 160 the previous high in early April.

The fall surge, coupled with the spring surge, makes the state Department of Health’s graphic for daily new cases resemble a mountain with two peaks, and it is cause for worry, according to a department spokeswoman.

“We are significantly concerned,” Maggi Mumma said in an email Friday.

It’s likely Friday’s peak is just a waystop to a higher level, Mumma said.

“It is hard to predict what will happen next, but there is nothing that indicates that cases are going to turn down,” she wrote.

So far, there hasn’t been a comparable surge in deaths.

The department’s statistics show a high of nearly 200 per day in the spring, while current death counts have been trending in the 30s and lower.

That may reflect better protection for the vulnerable and advances in treatment.

It also probably reflects the natural delay between people becoming infected and infections becoming fatal.

“We have seen in the past that deaths lag behind case increases,” Mumma wrote. “While we have a number of items in place to prevent an increase in cases and deaths, as we have seen cases increase, it is likely deaths will as well.”

The department’s stats show tests per day in the hundreds in the spring, but recently reaching almost 50,000. An increased number of tests can lead to an increased number of cases being identified, department spokesman Nate Wardle wrote in an email.

But the rising case count isn’t all attributable to testing, as indicated by the increasing “positivity” rate for the state, Wardle wrote.

That rate for the past week is 5%, exactly the traditional threshold of concern, according to the department’s COVID-19 Early Warning Monitoring System Dashboard.

The state’s incidence rate for the past week — the number of new cases per 100,000 people — is more troubling: at 79.1, it’s well over the threshold of concern, which is 50.

The average number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals for the past week statewide is higher than for the previous week by 177 patients, according to the dashboard.

Regionally, the numbers continue to be higher than they were in the summer, with 832 new cases in the past week.

That number is typical for the previous seven weeks, which have averaged 750.

But the distribution of cases among the six counties has changed, as an outbreak in Centre County due to the return of students to Penn State University Park has eased.

For the first four weeks of that seven-week period, Centre’s weekly share of the total averaged 78%.

For the most recent three weeks, Centre’s share fell to an average of 44% — and only 31% for the past week.

The numbers for Huntingdon, Blair and Cambria counties, meanwhile, have risen.

Huntingdon’s share of the regional total has gone from 1% for the prior four weeks to 16% for the most recent three.

Blair’s share of the regional total has gone from 8% for the previous four weeks to 15% for the most recent three.

Cambria’s share of the total has gone from 5% to 14%.

Of the local counties, Huntingdon’s early warning dashboard numbers are the most alarming, with an incidence rate of 407, more than eight times the level of concern, and a positivity rate of 12%, more than twice the level of concern.

For the past week, the number of deaths in Huntingdon County rose by 6 to 14.

Centre County’s incidence rate is 125, 1.5 times the concern level, but it has 107 fewer confirmed cases than in the previous week and its positivity rate has fallen below the level of concern to 4.9%.

Blair’s incidence rate is 99, twice the level of concern, although its positivity rate is 5.3%, just over the level of concern. Blair’s death tally increased by 4 to 27 in the past week.

Bedford’s incidence rate is 70 and its positivity rate is 7.6% — both of which exceed the levels of concern.

Cambria’s incidence rate is 92, almost twice the level of concern, and the number of confirmed cases is up 34 from the previous week, but its positivity rate is only 3.9%.

Clearfield’s incidence rate is 35 and its positivity rate 3.6%.

Mirror Staff Writer William Kibler is at 814-949-7038.

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