UPMC: Vaccine unlikely by year’s end

Doctors continue to stress necessity of mask wearing, social distancing

UPMC doctors speaking at a virtual news conference Tuesday said they don't believe a coronavirus vaccine will be ready by the end of the year.

The chances of having a vaccine that has been proven both safe and effective before January is "almost nil," said David Nace, chief medical officer for UPMC Senior Communities.

And even if a vaccine becomes available sooner than expected, studies show that up to half the population will refuse to take it, Nace said. Moreover, not everyone will generate good immunity with it, the doctors said.

For now, the equivalent of a vaccine is the mask, Nace said, holding up a mask that had been lying on the desk in front of him.

That needs to be coupled with social distancing and avoiding crowds where people are not masking, said Graham Snyder, medical director of infection prevention and hospital epidemiology.

The UPMC doctors are optimistic that this year's flu season will be mild, based on the Southern Hemisphere's experience with the flu season just ending there, according to Snyder.

Doctors there believe that masking and social distancing for COVID-19 have reduced flu infections, he said.

"If our communities stay strong and do what they need to do to prevent COVID-19, it may help to reduce the impact (here)," he said.

But that doesn't mean people shouldn't get flu shots, he said.

Every year, the flu infects millions, hospitalizes hundreds of thousands and kills tens of thousands, he said.

Getting flu shots can help reduce those impacts, he stated.

Ninety percent of annual flu deaths occur in those 65 and older, the same group vulnerable to COVID-19, he said.

That is why older people can benefit from specially modified flu shots that adjust for the weakened immune response most older people generate, Nace said.

It's also why an antibody therapy that UPMC-Pitt researchers are developing could help older people especially, because it would provide temporary immunity without requiring them to develop their own immune responses, Nace said.

Not long ago, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention became a target of widespread criticism for suggesting that people exposed to COVID-19 without developing symptoms don't necessarily need to be tested -- criticism that led the CDC to reverse its recommendation.

UPMC's experience seems to support the initial CDC suggestion, based on statements at the news conference.

Testing continues to be a limited resource, and while everyone with COVID-like symptoms should be tested, a test for someone without symptoms who's been recently exposed may not prove much -- given that symptoms can develop anywhere from two to 14 days after exposure, according to Snyder.

Such an exposed person, however, should quarantine for 14 days, he said.

"Current federal guidance fails to address this reality," he said.

Similarly, UPMC's experience doesn't necessarily conform to some other experts' pronouncements about COVID-19 transmissions via "aerosols" -- or tiny droplets that can hang in the air for significant periods of time, according to Snyder.

"Droplet transmission happens and is the predominant route," Snyder said. That happens through sneezing, coughing and singing, among other activities, he said. Airborne transmission happens, but is far less likely, he said.

UPMC enforces protections for droplet transmission all the time throughout all its facilities, but does so for airborne transmission strategically -- when it's deemed a genuine risk, according to Snyder.

As the science becomes clearer, the organization will "evolve its guidance," Snyder said.

People need to avoid congregating with others who aren't taking the need to mask and distance seriously, despite political fights about the state's restrictions, according to Snyder.

"(The coronavirus) doesn't read the legal register," Snyder said. "It doesn't care whether there's a law about congregating."

That goes for schools, weddings and sporting events, he said.

"It's all about the same (laws of) biological transmission," he said.

Mirror Staff Writer William Kibler is at 949-7038.