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A new population report highlights some areas of growth in the region amidst overall decline during the last five years.
At least one community each in Bedford and Cambria counties has managed to grow despite countywide population losses – and the news is slightly better in Blair County, where the numbers have held mostly steady.
But the region’s population is aging, challenging local economic development officials to come up with a plan to slow the decline plaguing most of western Pennsylvania.
The newest data, which is broken down by municipality, show some bright spots and hints at how those economic leaders might make a difference in the coming years.
Unlike most of the surrounding counties, Blair County isn’t experiencing high population loss.
According to a report from the Pennsylvania State Data Center, which issues regular population projections based on the 2010 U.S. Census, Blair County lost about 1 percent of its residents overall between 2010 and 2015.
About half of Blair’s communities have contributed to that overall loss, with Antis, Juniata and Freedom townships among those that have shrunk over the last five years by between 0.3 and 1.5 percent.
Catharine and Woodbury townships also are showing small losses.
A handful have remained the same, while four municipalities – Frankstown, Blair, Huston and North Woodbury townships – are showing growth of between 0.3 and 1.5 percent.
The city of Altoona lost about 980 residents in that time period, putting it in line with many other Pennsylvania cities.
The center said cities overall have projected 1 percent growth over that five-year time period, but six of the state’s 10 most populous cities have shrunk.
Philadelphia, Allentown, Scranton and Lancaster all showed increases, while Altoona was among the six in decline, which include Erie, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Reading and Bethlehem.
A piece of good news
Cambria County as a whole has been losing over 1,000 residents per year, but two of its municipalities have seen increases.
According to the data center, Chest Township has grown between 0.3 and 1.5 percent between 2010 and 2015, and Loretto Borough has grown by more than 3 percent – the only borough in the region to do so.
The projected growth likely is due at least in part to increased enrollment at Saint Francis University.
Marie Young, marketing and communications director for Saint Francis University, said the student population has increased by more than 11 percent over the last few years.
Including online students, enrollment stood at just under 2,400 in 2011, Young said; in 2015, enrollment was close to 2,700.
Although not every student lives within the borough, Saint Francis has been working with local officials to beautify Loretto and help attract potential students, Young said.
“We’ve collaborated on major infrastructure replacement, a downtown streetscape project, a community park,” she said. “And obviously our academic facilities have provided research and workforce development opportunities.”
Johnstown remains the fastest-shrinking city in the state, losing more than 1,000 residents between 2010 and 2015.
A USA Today report released in April ranked Johnstown as the third-fastest shrinking metropolitan area in the country.
Ethan Imhoff, executive director of the Cambria County Planning Commission, encouraged people to take the county’s population estimates with “a grain of salt,” as the numbers are only projections until after the next census.
A sweet spot
South of Blair County along the Interstate 99 corridor, the Bedford community of Snake Spring is projected to have grown.
Bedford Planning Commission Director Don Schwartz said he’s not surprised that the township is expected to have grown over the last several years – home to the UPMC Bedford hospital and a large retirement community, Snake Spring also has one of the largest shopping centers in the area outside of Altoona.
The township also is sandwiched between two boroughs, giving residents easy access for travel.
“You’re right between Everett and Bedford (boroughs), so you can go either direction,” Schwartz said. “And it only adds a few minutes’ travel time to Altoona. You just go down and jump on I-99.”
Schwartz said having a hospital in the area is important for families and retirees, as well as proximity to a town with shopping and activities.
“It’s a sweet spot” in Bedford County, he said. “I wish it was more common.”
A common denominator
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the proportion of older residents has grown in Blair, Bedford and Cambria counties over the last five years. But Pennsylvania itself is also getting older.
The Penn State center said older residents make up about 14.5 percent of America’s population, but that number is higher in Pennsylvania at 15.4 percent, “ranking the commonwealth fifth (oldest) nationally.”
Areas with aging populations need to help offset population decline by attracting businesses and, along with it, young families with working-age adults.
The Southern Alleghenies Planning Commission, a six-county nonprofit body focused on regional development, has adopted an economic development strategy to help slow population decline.
The commission serves Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Fulton, Huntingdon and Somerset counties.
Part of the strategy includes analysis of population projections and whether the commission can change those projections based on economic growth policies.
The report indicates that, if nothing changed, migration patterns show the region losing many working-age adults and adding a large number of seniors, resulting in losses of upward of 50,000 people – or 11 percent of its population – by 2040.
The report also estimated what the area could look like with successful economic growth policies that either added 100 agriculture jobs a year or attracted 200 young adults per year.
In each scenario, the region would still lose more than 12,000 people by 2040.
Even in the best scenario – having both the agriculture jobs and young adults – the region projects a net population loss of 1.5 percent, or more than 6,000 people, in the coming decades.
Schwartz, of the Bedford Planning Commission, said the regional plan and data give some context to the population estimates and show what counties across the region are doing to stop the population bleed.
Even if they knew they can’t grow the region, the report highlights community strengths and opportunities to help guide the commission toward better policies to make the most of its resources.
“The trend is similar no matter what you do. But we’re doing our best here,” Schwartz said.
Mirror Staff Writer Kelly Cernetich Brown is at 946-7520.