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Even with 1,500 new registrations since Jan. 1 of this year, Cambria County is still down more than 2,000 voters since the 2012 primary elections.
It’s a trend many attribute to the county’s rapid population decline, but what’s troubling for some in the historically blue county is that it’s losing Democrats at an even faster rate.
According to information obtained from the Cambria County elections office, the number of overall voters has dropped 2.5 percent over the last four years.
Since the 2012 primary election, Cambria County has gone from 85,600 registered voters to just under 84,000.
But in that time, the Republican Party has gained members, increasing about 10 percent to nearly 30,000 of the county’s registered voters.
By contrast, there were more than 51,000 Democrats registered to vote in the 2012 primaries, and now there are about 45,500, representing an 11 percent decrease.
The number of unaffiliated or third-party members has increased by about 700 to just under 8,000.
While the numbers seem to paint a picture of a county shifting away from its Democratic roots, elections office Director Shirley Crowl said what that means for the future is still unclear.
It’s likely that more than half of the GOP’s gains came in 2016.
The county registered 1,500 new voters this year; using the county’s current breakdown (three Democrats for every two Republicans) the party gained another 600 new members in 2016.
And about 1,100 voters switched from Democrat to Republican since Jan. 1.
Only 109 people changed from Republican to Democrat. The office doesn’t keep data on how many became Independent, unaffiliated or joined other third parties.
But using numbers from just 2016 can be misleading since many people switch parties in presidential election years, Crowl said.
“It’s not just Cambria County,” she said. “It’s statewide. I imagine it’s national, too. Everybody wants to vote in the primary.”
In fact, she added, many people who came to her office to change their registration took extra forms so they can change their affiliation again after Tuesday’s primary.
“A true test will be to wait another year to see how many of them (voters) change back,” she said.
Recent election results have produced mixed victories for both parties.
Cambria County eked out a win for President Barack Obama in 2008, but fewer than 1,000 votes separated him from Sen. John McCain.
The 2010 elections saw sweeping Republican gains nationwide, and Cambria was no exception: Voters picked Republican candidate Pat Toomey for Senate over former U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak by about 1,200 votes and elected Republican Gov. Tom Corbett by a margin of more than 7,000 votes.
That streak continued in 2012, when Gov. Mitt Romney received 33,000 votes to Obama’s 23,000.
When the county swung back to blue in 2014 to elect Gov. Tom Wolf, a smaller margin of only about 3,600 votes separated Wolf from Corbett.
Assuming all of the Democrats who left the party this year return, and assuming a majority of the new registered voters are Democrats, the numbers still show a net loss for the party and a net gain for the GOP.
While Democrats maintain a large registration advantage and continue to vote the party line for most local races, Republican officials said recent victories in contests for higher offices show improving chances for their down-ballot candidates.
“You’re seeing a frustration with liberal policies,” said Cambria County Republican Party Chairwoman Jackie Kulback. “It starts with Obamacare, immigration. I think people are just at a point where they are ready to register for the party that more represents their beliefs.”
Kulback said the registration numbers reflect an ideological shift happening in Cambria County, and she predicted a sweep of Republican victories in the fall for state and national office.
“We feel very confident,” she said.
Calls to Cambria’s Democratic headquarters were not answered Friday.
Mirror Staff Writer Kelly Cernetich is at 946-7520.