US-Russia deal victory for Kremlin

Diesel exports unlikely to impact US prices, but will add to war coffers

A deal between Moscow and Washington over exports of Russian diesel and fresh U.S. criticism of Ukraine's leader mark important political victories for the Kremlin, reversing some of the sanctions for its full-scale invasion of its neighbor.

While the size of Russia's diesel exports is relatively small and unlikely to significantly impact prices, the revenue will help Moscow replenish its war coffers and -- more importantly -- undermine efforts by Kyiv and its European allies to put up a united front against President Vladimir Putin.

Along with President Donald Trump suggesting that Ukraine should get a new leader to replace President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the developments strengthen the Kremlin's hand at a critical junction of the war, amid relentless attacks by Russia on energy systems and other vital infrastructure.

Ahead of next month's midterm elections, Trump blamed a spike in diesel prices on Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, even though the U.S.-led war in Iran has sent global energy prices soaring.

Mark Galeotti, a Russia expert who heads the Mayak Intelligence consultancy, described the deal that Trump announced Friday as an "astonishing birthday present" for Putin, two days after he turned 74.

While Russia's diesel exports could be a "drop in the ocean compared with actual overall demand," Galeotti said it was "a gift for Putin, even if a single barrel of diesel is not exported."

That's because "it drives another and increasingly thick wedge between Trump and Zelenskyy," he said in a podcast Sunday.