In baseball parlance, it’s an old adage that has been recited so often that it almost no longer bears repeating.

A team — any team — will go only as far as its pitching takes it.

If that’s the case, the season outlook for the 2025 Pittsburgh Pirates appears, at least on the surface, to be a bright one.

Led by one of the greatest young arms in Major League Baseball, right-hander Paul Skenes, and a very decent and promising supporting cast behind him, the Pirates’ starting rotation at the outset of this season appears to be one of the best in the National League, if not in all of Major League Baseball.

Couple that with the fact that the Pirates are part of what looks to be a winnable National League Central Division, and the Buccos’ justification for optimism shapes up as even more sound as the team kicks off its 2025 season with a road game this Thursday afternoon at 4:10 p.m. in Miami against the Marlins.

At least Derek Shelton, who is beginning his sixth year as the Pirates’ manager this spring after surviving heavy public criticism since the team’s late-season collapse in 2024, certainly thinks so.

“This is a division that we can win because our starting pitching is really good,” Shelton said in an interview with the Major League Baseball Network at the MLB Winter Meetings that were held in Dallas this past December.

“We need to add some bats, but I feel really good about where we’re at,” Shelton added.

The Pirates will build their hopes around the 6-foot-6, 235-pound Skenes, who was chosen by the Bucs with the first pick of the 2024 Major League Baseball Amateur Draft after leading LSU to the College World Series championship.

Skenes arrived in the major leagues last May 11, and proved to be every bit as good as advertised. He carded an 11-3 record in 23 starts, with a sparkling 1.96 earned run average, while allowing only 29 earned runs in 133 innings pitched. Skenes struck out 170 batters — an all-time single-season franchise record by a rookie pitcher — and walked just 32 batters.

Skenes became the first National League rookie to become a starting pitcher in the MLB All-Star Game since Hideo Nomo did it for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1995. He was named the National League’s Rookie of the Year for 2024 this past November, and finished third in the league’s Cy Young Award voting.

The sky appears to be the limit for Skenes — whose girlfriend and former LSU classmate, Livvy Dunne, helped LSU win the NCAA women’s gymnastics national title in 2024, and who is also a prominent social media influencer and arguably a bigger national celebrity than Skenes himself.

Skenes — who will be the Pirates’ opening-day pitcher Thursday — is under contract with the Pirates through the 2029 season, so the team’s window of opportunity with him leading the charge is open, and the clock has begun ticking.

“To say it after him having only (23) starts, I think is hard to say, but I think with the tools that he has, the mindset that he has, and the way that he works, he’s definitely in the conversation with the best young pitchers that we’ve seen over the last 40 years,” Shelton said of Skenes in an article that was published this past February on the Sports Illustrated.com website.

While Skenes will give the Pirates a great chance to win every time that he takes the mound this season, the club is facing a myriad of question marks elsewhere after the Bucs finished with a second straight 76-86 record last season and wound up last in the N.L. Central Division standings after a 21-34 showing over their final 55 games that deep-sixed what had been realistic playoff aspirations for the team entering the month of August.

The rest of the starting rotation holds much promise, but there are still questions to be answered there, too. Right-hander Jared Jones was one of the Pirates’ final additions as they traveled north from spring training in 2024, and dazzled in the early going last season. But he faced health issues later on and ultimately leveled off. He finished the year with a 6-8 record and 4.14 earned run average in 22 starts, while striking out 132 batters and walking just 40 in 121.2 innings pitched.

Jones, 23, missed two months of the season last year with a lat strain, and his status to start this season is in limbo after he was scratched from his last spring training start, scheduled for today, with what has been termed as elbow discomfort.

Any extended absence for Jones would be a step back to start this season for the Pirates, and the worst case scenario – that the problem will require Tommy John elbow surgery and sideline Jones for the entire season – would be devastating for a club that is basing its 2025 hopes on its starting pitching.

The Pirates have consulted medical personnel for a second opinion on Jones’ elbow issues, and if he begins this season on the injured list, his likely replacement will be chosen from any one of three prized right-handed prospects – Thomas Harrington, Bubba Chandler, or Mike Burrows.

Chandler has been one of the Pirates organization’s most hyped pitching prospects in recent memory, while Harrington was chosen by the Bucs with the 36th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Amateur Draft.

Burrows already has some major league starting experience with the Pirates, albeit on a limited basis.

Another key member of the rotation is veteran righty Mitch Keller, who warranted all-star consideration in the first half of last season, posting a 10-5 record, but won just one of his eight decisions in the second half of the year.

Veteran lefty Bailey Falter, who ran hot and cold last year, is a largely unknown quantity, but he could be counted on to fill a spot in the back end of the rotation again.

The Pirates picked up left-hander Andrew Heaney as a free agent this offseason after the 33 year-old veteran posted a 5-14 record with a 4.28 E.R.A. with the Texas Rangers a year ago, and he could help fill out the back end of the rotation.

Right-hander Johan Oviedo, who turned in a very promising 2023 season before undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing all of the 2024 campaign, was put on the club’s 60-day injured list in spring training this year after suffering a lat injury while throwing live batting practice, and his immediate future on the mound is very much in doubt.

Another top right-handed pitching prospect, Braxton Ashcraft, could be used either in the starting rotation or in a relief role, as could right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski, who has been mentioned as an immediate replacement for Jones if Jones can’t start the season.

If all of their key pieces of the puzzle fall into place, the Pirates could have the starting pitching that will enable them to contend this season. But there are still plenty of boxes that need to be checked for that to happen, and even more question marks with an offense that was one of the least productive in the major leagues a year ago, as well as with a bullpen that suffered an implosion last year that coincided with the Pirates’ late-season fall from grace.

Needing a spark

The numbers didn’t lie concerning the Pirates’ lack of offensive production in 2024. The club’s 665 runs scored ranked the Bucs 24th among the 30 major league teams, while Pittsburgh’s 160 home runs was better than just five other MLB clubs. The Pirates’ .234 team batting average left them in a tie for 23rd overall in the majors.

Much more production will definitely be needed from the Buccos’ offense in 2025, and although there are strong points, there are also plenty of question marks.

The Pirates attempted to address a need at first base and with the batting lineup by acquiring former Toronto Blue Jays’ player Spencer Horwitz in a three-team offseason trade that sent promising right-handed pitcher Luis Ortiz from the Pirates to the Cleveland Guardians. The left-handed batting Horwitz underwent wrist surgery this past February, however, and won’t be ready for the start of the season, leaving the first base position that has been a trouble spot for the Bucs for the past several seasons wide open again.

Candidates to fill the job include versatile infielder Jared Triolo, infielder-outfielder Billy Cook, and D.J. Stewart, a former New York Met who was invited to the Bucs’ camp as a non-roster invitee for spring training. Nick Yorke, a 2024 trade addition, could also be in the mix at first base, although he is a natural second baseman and outfielder. Finally, outfielder Jack Suwinski could be among the first base candidates as the Pirates hope that he can regain the offensive magic that enabled him to hit 26 home runs in 2023 before he slumped abysmally last year, when he spent much of the season in the minors at Class AAA Indianapolis.

Across the diamond, all eyes will be on the performance of Ke’Bryan Hayes at third base. Plagued by chronic back problems, Hayes’ offensive numbers slipped drastically in 2024, when he was shut down for the season in late August after hitting only four home runs, driving in just 25 runs, and collecting only 13 extra-base hits all season while batting just .231.

Those numbers were drastic drop-offs for Hayes from a stellar 2023 season in which he hit 15 homers, drove in 61 runs, and batted .273. Hayes, who was a first-round draft pick by the Bucs back in 2015, won a Rawlings Gold Glove Award in 2023 for defensive excellence among the National League’s third basemen.

Hayes – who the Pirates signed to an eight-year contract in 2022 — worked with a medical specialist in Los Angeles this past offseason, and the Pirates are crossing their fingers that he can return to good health and good numbers at the plate again this season.

With 49 RBIs last year, Nick Gonzales gives the Pirates both a solid bat and glove at the second base position, where Triolo, Yorke, Cook, and veteran Adam Frazier – a former all-star with the Pirates earlier in his career who was re-acquired this offseason – will also be in the mix.

The versatile Triolo – who won a Rawlings Gold Glove for NL utilitymen last season — can also play shortstop or third base. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, picked up by the Pirates in a trade with Toronto last season, is a strong candidate at shortstop, and can also play third base.

Joey Bart, acquired from the San Francisco Giants early last season, was arguably the Pirates’ most pleasant surprise in 2024. The 2018 MLB draft second overall pick slugged 13 home runs and drove in 45 runs last year, and begins this year as the Bucs’ front-runner at the catcher position.

Bart will be backed up by the 2021 top MLB draft pick Henry Davis and the highly-touted Endy Rodriquez. Davis struggled miserably at the plate last year and spent most of the season at Indianapolis, but showed signs of resurrecting his batting game this past spring training. Rodriquez missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

In the outfield, two-time all-star Bryan Reynolds and converted shortstop Oneil Cruz were the Pirates’ top power producers last season. The durable Reynolds led the Pirates in home runs (24), RBIS (88), hits (171), and batting average (.275), while playing in 157 of 162 games. Reynolds is moving from left to right field this season for the Pirates, who acquired veteran Tommy Pham as a free-agent offseason acquisition to man one of the corner outfield positions. The 6-foot-7 Cruz got his feet wet in center field last season, finishing the season with 21 home runs, 76 RBIs, 140 hits, and 22 stolen bases.

Cook and Joshua Palacios are also outfield candidates, as is speedster Ji Hwan Bae, who enjoyed a good spring training. Suwinski may also get a final chance to resurrect his Pirates’ career in the outfield after a woeful 2024 season in which he batted just .182 while striking out 79 times in 247 plate appearances.

The Pirates signed 38-year-old franchise icon Andrew McCutchen to a third straight one-year, $5 million contract this past offseason. McCutchen filled the designated hitter spot and appeared in the leadoff position of the batting order for most of last season, hitting 20 home runs.

Seeking relief

Entering the 2024 season, the Pirates’ bullpen was expected to be one of the team’s strongest areas. Instead, the overall unit struggled miserably — particularly two-time all-star closer David Bednar, who suffered seven blown saves in 30 tries, and set-up man Colin Holderman, who was outstanding through late June but failed to hold several leads in games in the second half of the season.

Both Bednar and Holderman struggled with injuries last season, and the Pirates will be looking for a rebound effort from both this year after veteran left-hander Aroldis Chapman – the bullpen’s overall best performer last year – signed a free-agent contract with the Boston Red Sox.

Mlodzinski, Kyle Nicolas and Dennis Santana all had their shining moments out of the pen last season, with Santana being particularly effective after his arrival from the New York Yankees. Another veteran right-handed reliever, Justin Lawrence, was claimed off waivers from the Colorado Rockies during spring training this year, and right-hander Tanner Rainey, who signed a minor league contract with the Pirates last December, could also be in the bullpen mix.

The Pirates also added left-handed bullpen depth with the offseason acquisitions of Caleb Ferguson and Tim Mayza in an attempt to strengthen a pen that posted a 4.49 ERA last season that was fourth worst among all MLB teams.

More left-handed bullpen depth could be provided by Joey Wentz and veteran Ryan Borucki, who had a very impressive 2023 season with the Pirates but spent a good part of last year on the injured list.

The Pirates desperately need bounce-back performances from their key bullpen pieces and solid contributions from the others in order to remain in the playoff hunt in 2025.

Outlook/prediction

The Pirates have some intriguing assets – notably Skenes and the rest of the starting rotation, along with Reynolds and a potential budding superstar in Cruz.

Improvement by the bullpen and in the team’s offensive production will be crucial this season. If everything comes together, look for the Pirates to improve by at least eight wins from their 76-victory total in both 2024 and 2023, and finish 84-78, which ought to be good enough for third place in the NL Central Division behind the much-improved Chicago Cubs and the two-time defending division champion Milwaukee Brewers.

But how well the Bucs can address all the unknown elements facing them at the outset of this season will determine whether the team can have a winning season, stay in the fight for its first playoff appearance since 2015, and make September baseball meaningful again in Pittsburgh.

(John Hartsock can be reached at jhartsock@altoonamirror.com)

10 keys to the season

1.) Bring out the lumber: The Pirates could have one of the finest young starting pitching rotations in Major League Baseball right now, and starting pitching is a big key to any team’s success. Nonetheless, it is only part of the overall puzzle. An offense which finished near the bottom of the National League in most of the top offensive categories last year must improve.

2.) Bullpen bounce-back: All eyes will be on the Pirates’ bullpen, which, between injuries and ineffectiveness, played a large role in the team’s late-summer collapse a year ago. The Bucs’ bullpen blew 29 saves last year, tied for worst in the league with, of all teams, the World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Future Hall-of-Famer Aroldis Chapman was the pen’s biggest asset for the Pirates in 2024, but he has left via free agency. Two-time all-star closer David Bednar will be under the most scrutiny, after enduring a rough 2024 campaign in which he blew seven saves in 30 opportunities, posted a 5.77 earned run average, and lost the closer’s job to Chapman late in the season. Late-inning reliever Colin Holderman was outstanding through late June, then struggled and gave up several leads in games in the second half of last season. Both Bednar and Holderman wrestled with various injuries a year ago, and the Pirates will look for, and need for, both to get back to their excellent 2023 forms this season.

3.) What’s next for Skenes?: Paul Skenes was as good as advertised last year after making his much-anticipated Major League Baseball debut in mid-May, earning the National League’s Rookie of the Year award by racking up an 11-3 record that, with more help from the Pirates’ batters and their bullpen, should have been much better. Skenes carded a 1.96 earned run average in 23 starts, allowing just 29 earned runs in 133 innings pitched, while racking up a season record for strikeouts by a Pirates rookie pitcher (170) and walking just 32 batters. Skenes became the first rookie starting pitcher in nearly three decades for the National League in the All-Star Game, and the only thing left for him to do this season is to win the league’s Cy Young Award, for which he is already being considered a heavy favorite.

4.) Will rotation live up to its hype?: The Pirates are hanging their chances for their first trip to the postseason since 2015 on their starting rotation, which could wind up as one of Major League Baseball’s best this season if it fulfills its sky-high expectations. Skenes gives the Pirates a great chance to win every time that he takes the mound. After him, the rest of the rotation is good, but some question marks still loom. Righty Jared Jones began his rookie year last season like gangbusters, then endured a two-month layoff with a lat injury and leveled off in the second half of the season. Jones was scratched from his final scheduled spring training start today because of elbow discomfort, which is concerning. Jones could be a rotation ace on many major league teams, and his extended absence this season would likely be very problematic for the overall rotation. Veteran righty Mitch Keller had a sizzling first half last year, then went 1-7 after the all-star break. Wire-to-wire consistency from him could be one of the biggest factors in getting the Pirates over the hump this season. Highly-touted right-hander Bubba Chandler excelled in the minor leagues a year ago, and is expected to crack the Bucs’ rotation this season. Excitement in the organization about Chandler has been very high for several seasons. Another prized pitching prospect is right-hander Thomas Harrington, a first-round pick by the Bucs in the 2022 MLB draft, who is also likely to make an impact with the Pirates this year. Lefty Andrew Heaney, an offseason acquisition, and southpaw Bailey Falter, will help fill out a rotation that appears to be very promising, although Falter missed some duty in spring training because of what was termed as “general body soreness.”

5.) The Shelton watch: Derek Shelton has had his share of detractors during what will be his six-year tenure as the Pirates’ manager, and the wolves were barking especially loudly late last season, when the Pirates lost 34 of their final 55 games and wound up in last place in the National League Central Division after having placed themselves in the thick of the Wild Card playoff picture entering August. The Pirates kept Shelton aboard, and replaced their much-maligned batting coach Andy Haines with former Pirates player Matt Hague, who had formerly been the batting coach with the American League’s Toronto Blue Jays. They also added an assistant pitching coach in 77-year-old former MLB veteran Brent Strohm to join forces with head pitching coach Oscar Marin. Whether the batting coach change translates into more offensive production for the Bucs this season remains to be seen, but another below .500 season for the Bucs could well mean the end of the line for Shelton as the club’s manager.

6.) The Hayes watch: Like Bednar, all eyes will be on third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, whose chronic back problems played a big role in his very disappointing 2024 season, when he hit just .233 with just 13 extra-base hits before being placed on the injured list in late August for the rest of the season. Hayes saw a specialist in Los Angeles this past offseason, and the Pirates are hoping that his back recovers well enough to enable him to return to his 2023 form, when he hit .271 with 15 homers and 61 RBIs after signing an eight-year contract with the Pirates in 2022 that currently doesn’t look very club-friendly. Hayes missed a part of this year’s spring training with tightness in his left side that isn’t related to his back issues and which isn’t expected to be a long-term problem for him. A healthy Hayes would go a long way in boosting what was one of the most languid offenses in MLB a year ago.

7.) Who’s on first? The first base position has been a never-ending, revolving-door question mark for the Pirates in recent years, and this season, there are even more questions, despite the fact that the Pirates picked up left-handed hitting first baseman Spencer Horwitz in an offseason trade. Horwitz underwent wrist surgery in late February and won’t be fit enough to start this season. That leaves a multitude of candidates at a position which has been by far the team’s most uncertain. Jared Triolo, newcomer D.J. Stewart, Nick Yorke, Billy Cook, and long-time farmhand Matt Gorski could all wind up in the mix. Outfielder Jack Suwinski also might be considered to add offense at the position, despite not having played it before and despite the fact that he slumped miserably at the plate last season after a strong 2023 campaign.

8.) Dodge the skids: It’s become a disturbing and somewhat regular pattern for the Pirates that one or two extended losing skids have torpedoed what could have been promising seasons. It happened again last year, when a 10-game August losing streak changed the entire trajectory of the Pirates’ season and relegated them to the spoilers’ role again in September. The most effective remedy for preventing these losing streaks is excellent pitching — particularly in the starting rotation. The Pirates appear to be quite promising on that front in 2025, but avoiding long losing slumps will be of paramount importance for the Bucs.

9.) Division title for the taking: The Chicago Cubs made significant improvements through offseason acquisitions, and the two-time defending National League Central Division champion Milwaukee Brewers look solid again. While the St. Louis Cardinals are in somewhat of a rebuilding mode, the Cincinnati Reds — with a top-tier new manager in future Hall-of-Famer Terry Francona and a bevy of youthful talent — should make strides this year. If the Pirates get the starting pitching that they expect from their young, promising rotation, if the offense can produce significantly more, and if the bullpen shores up its woes, Pittsburgh has a realistic chance to win the wide-open NL Central this year for the first time since the Pirates became a part of it back in 1994. The Bucs still need to check all of the boxes, and answer all of the questions, but the outlook is a lot more favorable for them in the NL Central than it would be in the comparatively loaded NL East and NL West Divisions.

10.) Around the league: The Pirates’ best chance at making the playoffs in 2025 may well be for them to win their division. The New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves all figure to be juggernauts in the N.L. East, and the defending World Champion Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks — who are just two years removed from a World Series appearance — will again be very strong in the N.L. West. San Francisco, San Diego, the Cubs, the Brewers and the Reds will all figure to be in the playoff hunt, making it even more difficult for the Pirates to reach the postseason this year via the Wild Card route. There will be plenty of competition for the six available postseason spots in the National League, but winning a division title would be a sure ticket.

— Compiled by John Hartsock