Democrats and Republicans are virtually tied in voter registration as 2026 gets underway with elections that could determine the balance of power in Harrisburg and in the U.S. Congress.

Democrats outnumber Republicans by just over 170,000 voters in total registration, and when only active voters are counted, the advantage is just 42,689.

That means Democrats have a slim 50.3% to 49.7% edge among the 7 million active voters who belong to either major party.

What’s on the ballot?

Just the governor’s office, all the state House seats, where Democrats hold a one-seat majority and half the seats in the Senate, where Republicans hold a four-seat majority. And four Congressional races are considered crucial for determining which party controls that chamber.

With the major parties neck and neck in voter registration, the results in November will likely be determined by two things: turnout and who wins among the state’s 1.46 million independent voters, said Sen. Greg Rothman, R-Cumberland, the Pennsylvania Republican Party chairman.

“Pennsylvania is the most important state in the entire country in this election.

The RNC (Republican National Committee) has told me that over and over again,” Rothman said in an interview with CapitolWire/State Affairs.

“To be totally transparent about it, there’s a lot of independents, too. It’s just growing and growing. The key for us, in most of these elections, is to win the independents.

In 2020, Biden won the independents, in 2024, Trump won independents. So independents are the key now.”

The dead heat in voter registration comes after almost 750,000 Democrats in Pennsylvania switched to the Republican Party in 2025, while just under 418,000 Republicans switched to become Democrats.

But there are clear signals giving Democrats reason for optimism though, the state party chairman Eugene DePasquale told CapitolWire/State Affairs.

“We have a very popular governor that’s going to be at the top of the ticket. And we are going to use that along with very good candidates, and the continued chaos in Washington, to expand our state House and flip the state Senate,” DePasquale said.

Gov. Josh Shapiro is seeking re-election to a second term, even while many political observers believe he is eyeing a run for the White House in 2028. State Treasurer Stacy Garrity, who would be the first woman elected governor in Pennsylvania, is the presumptive Republican nominee to challenge Shapiro.

And as DePasquale noted, Democrats are clinging to a one-seat advantage in the state House and hope to break through the Republicans’ decades-long majority in the state Senate. Republicans currently have a 27-23 majority.

Key races

This week, Rep. Sheryl Delozier, R-Cumberland, announced she is retiring, creating an open seat in a county that Democrats believe is increasingly competitive.

“Pennsylvania Democrats are on offense in 2026 while the GOP is scrambling,” DePasquale said in a statement Tuesday. ” The 88th House District was always going to be a key pickup opportunity, but today’s news has put us in the driver’s seat.”

Rothman downplayed the suggestion that the 88th District seat is vulnerable due to Delozier’s departure.

“(Delozier’s) closest race she ever had was like 10 or 11 points. So I know the Democrats think that’s close, but 10 points isn’t close,” he said.

Republicans hold a 5,000 voter registration advantage in the district, though there are more than 8,000 independent voters in the district, enough to swing the results.

Democrats can also point to the shock win last year by state Sen. James Malone, D-Lancaster, who won a special election in a district long held by Republicans.

Republicans will also be looking to take back the 36th District won by Malone. Four candidates are currently vying for the support of the Lancaster County Republican Party in that race.

Malone won the 2025 special election by 500 votes. But Republicans outnumber Democrats by 40,000 voters in the district and there aren’t enough independent voters to bridge the gap in the district.

While Republicans have a bull’s eye on Malone, Democrats are targeting four Senate Republicans — Sens. Frank Farry, R-Bucks; Tracy Pennycuick, R-Bucks; Jarrett Coleman, R-Lehigh, and Rosemary Brown, R-Monroe — they believe are vulnerable.

Congressional races

With control of the U.S. House up for grabs, the state races will be competing for attention with a handful of hotly-contested congressional races around the state.

Those congressional seats are all held by Republicans — Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in the 1st District; first-term Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in the 7th District, first-term Rep. Rob Bresnahan in the 8th District and Rep. Scott Perry in the 10th District.

Fitzpatrick, MacKenzie and Bresnahan last week joined Democrats in a bid to save the Affordable Care Act subsidies that expired at the end of the year, resulting in dramatic price increases for health care coverage purchased through the state’s insurance marketplace.