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Nittany Lions will need McSorley to be healthy

Keys to today's game

Five things to look for as No. 14 Penn State looks to upset No. 5 Michigan on the road and thereby knock the Wolverines out of the College Football Playoff picture.

No. 1: Need a good knee

Trace McSorley injured his right knee last week against Iowa and missed a few series before returning for good in the second half. The quarterback must be at or very close to 100 percent if the Nittany Lions are to have a chance today.

McSorley’s running abilities have been a huge part of PSU’s offensive success this season. The passing game just hasn’t clicked as well as expected, so McSorley often has had to take things into his own hands (or feet) and run the ball on big plays.

McSorley had a 51-yard TD run in the second half of last week’s game, on a play in which there were no defenders anywhere around him. But other than that, he didn’t seem to move around as well as usual.

PSU’s run-pass option is so heavily predicated on the quarterback’s ability to run at any given time. If McSorley cannot do that, Michigan will figure it out in a hurry. That could make for a very long day for the Lions on offense.

McSorley didn’t offer much about his health when asked Wednesday.

“We’re just kind of going one day at a time, and we’re figuring out what the best fit is going to be for me to be able to play on Saturday,” he said. “And what’s going to be the most comfortable, really.”

If McSorley is too banged up, Tommy Stevens would be the quarterback. Michigan will load up heavily to stop Stevens from running and force him to throw the ball, and given his inexperience, that could be a big problem for PSU.

No. 2: Throw it deep

Penn State will not beat Michigan’s terrific defense trying to methodically move the ball down the field with 10- or 12-play drives. Too many things can and probably will go wrong to derail the drives.

The Lions absolutely must get some big plays, most notably by throwing the ball deep and trying to pick up big chunks of yards.

That was a key part of the PSU offense the past two years. But it simply has not been as big of a factor for much of the season.

If you stop and think about it, can the Lions’ offense really be anywhere near as good as it was the past two years without the deep throws and quick-strike scoring ability?

Furthermore, if the offense is not as explosive, can we truly expect Penn State to be as good of a team as we saw the past two years?

The answers to those questions should be obvious.

So the Lions have to start throwing the ball deep again.

No. 3: Greed is good

James Franklin called Michigan’s defense “greedy” because it doesn’t like to give up any yards. Ever.

The Wolverines lead the nation in total defense, allowing only 220 yards per game. They are terrific against the run and the pass. They don’t make mistakes.

If McSorley is 100 percent, the Lions are going to have issues with this defense.

If McSorley is not 100 percent, the Lions could get clobbered in this game because of Michigan’s defense.

One thing the Lions must do well is convert on third down. They rank 103rd in the nation in that category, which is abysmal, particularly when you have a senior quarterback as accomplished as McSorley.

If PSU can’t extend drives at a high rate on third down, it means the Lions’ defense will be out on the field all day and will wear down.

No. 4: Stop the run

Look, if Penn State can’t do this, then pretty much nothing else will matter. Jim Harbaugh likes to stick with his running game, and he has a workhorse back in Karan Higdon, who has 831 yards rushing and averages 5.4 per carry.

The Wolverines are going to pound the ball right at PSU trying to get a lead. If they get a lead, they could let quarterback Shea Patterson loose, but it’s more likely that they’ll just keep running it down PSU’s throat until the Lions prove they can stop it.

It’s doubtful they can. Put Michigan’s over/under rushing total at 230 yards.

No. 5: Players to watch

PSU: McSorley is obvious, but certainly the defensive line has to be able to get some kind of control in the trenches to stop Michigan’s running game.

Michigan: QB Shea Patterson is intriguing. The Wolverines can win this game by being run heavy, but for them to win the Big Ten and compete in the College Football Playoff, Patterson will have to make a lot of plays through the air. He has excellent tight ends at his disposal but not great wideouts. I want to see if Harbaugh is capable of trusting a quarterback and turning him loose.

Prediction: Michigan 34, Penn State 17

Follow @CoryGiger on Twitter for live updates and analysis throughout today’s game.

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