Among living former mayors of Altoona, Wayne Hippo served most recently.
Within that group of six, Allan Hancock served the longest ago.
Yet both were equally prophetic in realizing that today would arrive - when City Council would consider a petition to enter the state's Distressed Municipalities Program.
"Everyone has seen this coming for years," said Hippo, whose term ended in 2010.
"Even back then, I saw the handwriting on the wall," said Hancock, whose stint as mayor ended in 1983.
Two of the other former mayors - Dan Milliron, the first after the 1990 change to the current manager-council form of government, and Dave Jannetta, who succeeded Hancock - described distress as "inevitable."
"Deja vu all over again," Jannetta said. "This is the exact conversation I had 100 times when I was at City Hall."
There's no guarantee the resolution will pass at tonight's meeting, but in discussions over the past few months, Council seems to have come close to a consensus that the city needs to enter the program.
Its current budget projects a $1.6 million deficit that will exhaust all the city's unreserved fund balance.
If anyone has a better idea, they should speak up, Councilman Bruce Kelley said at council's most recent meeting.
No one met that challenge.
The program would provide a state-appointed recovery coordinator, who would help the city draw up a recovery plan.
Distress is the only tool the state provides, according to Hippo, who helped devise a variety of short-term fixes to avoid distress when he was mayor.
The lack of a preventive plan is a disgrace, he thinks.
"Pennsylvania is willing to clean up the train accidents, but it's not willing to fix the track before the wreck," he said.
Milliron helped make cuts when he was mayor, but he said they were "the easy cuts."
It reduced taxes by double digits the first couple of years, he said.
Cuts got harder after that, and council long ago began cutting "into the bone," City Manager Joe Weakland has said repeatedly.
"Everything that we can possibly do has been done," Hippo said.
Recovery plans can include levying additional earned income and property taxes beyond levels authorized by state law.
Additional taxation, especially property tax, though, is hardly a "magic wand," because the financial deterioration that led to the current mess involved just such tax hikes, accompanied by declining service, Jannetta said.
What's needed is a change at the state level to allow for municipal consolidation, said Jannetta, Hancock and Alan Mikula, the last mayor under the old mayor-council form of government.
"The only way I can see solving it is to broaden the scope," Hancock said.
Many decades ago, consolidation was common, as cities that owned water and sewer systems annexed territory whose occupants wanted the service.
But between 1967, with the Pennsylvania Constitutional Convention, and 1994, with General Assembly's new law on consolidation, annexation became prohibitive because it required a majority vote of both municipalities, according to a 2009 paper by the Pennsylvania Economy League.
Why should any municipality submit to annexation if it doesn't need to? Hancock asked.
The state needs to unstack the deck against consolidation, Jannetta said.
That will probably require another Constitutional convention and strong leadership, he said.
Among "attractive" options is county takeover of some municipal responsibilities, Jannetta, Mikula and Hancock said.
It could be one highway department, instead of many; one police department, instead of many; and one fire department, instead of many, Mikula said.
"I'll probably get killed for [the] idea, but I don't care," Hancock said.
Unfortunately, such ideas would be difficult, because local leaders tend to want to maintain their positions and power, Mikula agreed.
"You run into little ego problems," he said.
Broadening the scope of government shouldn't mean inferior service at the local level, however, because elected officials who would oversee those services at a higher level would want to please everyone, to ensure they get re-elected, Mikula said.
Milliron pushed for consolidation once, and got snubbed.
He proposed that the city annex Logan Township and call the resulting municipality Logan City.
"They threw me out," he said.
An Altoona recovery plan is likely to include layoffs or fire station closings, said Milliron, who emphasized that he isn't endorsing either one.
"The Fire Department is always put on the chopping block," he said. "The Fire Department needs to be concerned."
One key feature of the Distressed Municipalities program is that the recovery plan coordinator is an "out of town guy," "so he will not be subject to local pressure," Milliron said.
"That makes a lot of sense," he agreed. "You don't want him to be subject to the chilling pressure of 'my house is going to burn.'"
Tom Martin, who preceded Hippo, said he hasn't been keeping close enough track of city affairs to speak authoritatively.
"[Better] to find a solution or delay as long as possible," he said. "But to say they should or shouldn't, I just don't know enough."
"I feel bad for these guys," Hippo said about the current council. "They're in a no-win situation."
Mirror Staff Writer William Kibler is at 949-7038.
