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Biding its time

Meteorologists say balmy weather just temporary — winter’s on its way

By David Hurst, dhurst@altoonamirror.com
POSTED: November 13, 2009

Article Photos


Those hoping the recent trend of mild weather is a preview of a warm winter might want to stop reading here.

While local meteorologists and weather experts say there's little reason to see a sudden temperature plunge in the coming week to 10 days, the region's likely in for "a good old-fashioned winter" in the months ahead - with colder temperatures than we've seen in recent years and a stage set for plenty of snow.

Local forecasters' advice: Soak up the mild temperatures now, because once they're gone, it could get nasty at times.

"The forecast for the Altoona area over the next week to 10 days should be pretty nice: above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation," National Weather Service meteorologist Craig Evanego said Wednesday. "It's definitely something to enjoy while it lasts."

The weather service predicts daytime highs could be in the low 60s this weekend, although some rain is possible Saturday in Altoona.

Ebensburg and Bedford will see similar temperatures while the outlook is that skies will remain clear through early next week with temperatures expected to see highs in the mid-50s, Evanego said.

Meteorologist Fred Gadomski, a Penn State instructor, said a storm front will move into the area over the weekend but the worst of it will be south of the Mason-Dixon Line.

There's no immediate sign of cold air on the way, so it's unclear to predict when weather conditions will head south in this region, Gadomski said.

"Longer-term forecasting is never something you want to bet the old farm on, but looking at the patterns recently and similar historical weather patterns, it looks like we'll be seeing some colder than normal temperatures and a good old Pennsylvania winter," Gadomski said.

Once Old Man Winter does arrive, cold spells will likely last longer than normal - and patterns suggest conditions will be ripe for plenty of snowfall, he said.

Gadomski likes to compare recent patterns with very similar ones he's seen before to predict what the coming months may bring. And this winter's patterns look a lot like they did in 1969.

"It looks like it'll be one of those winters where people are going to say they want some of that global warming trend back," he said. "As for snowfall the table will be set for it, but that doesn't always mean we'll get it."

Evanego says the National Weather Service's winter outlook calls for "near-normal" winter precipitation.

He said that outlook, developed last month, likely will be updated this month as the picture begins to clarify.

The Farmer's Almanac is predicting average precipitation from January through March for most of Pennsylvania, while predicting a possibly "bitterly" cold winter for much of the Great Lakes region.

If it sounds like there are some differing opinions, that's hardly unusual, forecasters said.

"Predicting what's coming that far ahead, it's a risky business," Gadomski said.

On farms throughout the region, people like Patton-area farmer Marty Yahner know that all too well.

"Everything I do is dependant on the weather. I always make sure I have a real good idea of what is going on over the next few days," Yahner said. "But when people ask me what the weather's going to be like this winter, I always tell them the same thing: Ask me in a few months when it's over."

Mirror Staff Writer David Hurst is at 946-7457.

 
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Member Comments
View Comments: | 1-3 | Post a comment
localgirl
11-13-09 3:55 PM
The little kid in me is dying for a winter like 92-93 :)

nospinhere
11-13-09 9:46 AM
Hot Chocolate with tons of marshmellos!

KlausVR
11-13-09 8:59 AM
Hot coffee and the best breakfast available anywhere ... T&J's downtown. Mmmm...MMMmmm. What a way to buck up against Old Man Winter!

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